【1010G精英组】Argument209 F组回收站

lynnuanaUID: 2772328

限时写作第七篇：Argument209
一天一篇，作文直接跟帖，修改直接跟帖
5月20日上交+批改

209.The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

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lynnuanaUID: 2772328

PS—profits 下降（后3个季度）--要求她辞职，并给她一笔丰厚的派遣费
RW（SJ president）--profit 好几年increased dramatically – pay twice PS salary

The manager of the Fancy Toy Company suggests the board to replace the current president Pat Salvo(PS) with Rosa Winnings(RW) who is the president of Starlight Jewelry. He indicates if this measure came true, the Fancy Toy Company would expect considerably increasing profit. However, his conclusion suffers several logical fallacies as follows.

Primarily, the manager attributes the profit decline in the last three quarters of the year to the current president PS and recommends her to resign. But this is nonsense; no evident reveals the drop in profit is the result of incompetence of PS. Maybe the decline is only a temporary phenomenon and in the following season, the production of a new kind of toy would turn the tide; or perhaps the costs of materials are suddenly increasing, which would be getting better under the control of PS. Without ruling out these possibilities, it is hard to ask for the president to resign to resolve the profit problem.

Secondly, the manager ensures Rosa would be the right choice for the position of president who would bring about the profit growth. However, it is not the case. On the one hand, would Rosa be like to accept the invitation of the position? Maybe she could not afford the responsibility of two companies and thus would refuse the title. On the other hand, I wonder more information about the increasing profit of Starlight Jewelry. Maybe it is not merely the contribute of Rosa: probably she just took over the position; or the cost of material and labor have declined in the past several years; or the increasing is only apparent and the jewelry company would soon face an unexpected profit decline. Therefore, the manager needs to take into account theses probabilities, or he could not persuade the audience on this point.

What’s more, maybe Rosa is an effective president to manage Starlight Jewelry, yet she is probably not that efficient as a president of a toy company. The two businesses ought to be totally different and therefore, Rosa’s successful experience and skills could not help Fancy Toy to get out of dilemma. The manager would need to consider seriously about this transformation.

To sum up, the recommendation of the manager is unpersuasive as it stands. The manager needs to consider the different situations between the two companies and the responsibility between both of the presidents. To better evaluate the argument,  more information about Pat and Rosa need to be provided.

lxin333UID: 2650844

占座

悦微微志燮UID: 2759026

In this argument, the author advocates that Fancy Toy Company should used Rosa instead of Pat Salvo to be the president. Although I concede that it is accuracy to some extent, a logical flaw that whether there is comparability between the respective firms which Pat and Rosa taken charge of are ill-conceived. The reasons are discussed below.


In the first place, the author’s conclusion depends on this premise that the two cited companies have comparability. The primary objective of the argument is to enhance the profits of the F Company. Thus, if without this premise, all the other evidence that offered makes nonsense to support Rosa have succeed in leading S company to earn more profits during last three years. Furthermore, although these two companies may have something in common, the arguer offers no evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. From the name of two companies, we can figure out that F Company produces toy but the S firm manufactures jewelry. As we all know two companies are in completely distinctive territories. Could they have lots of things in common running their own businesses? As a matter of fact, different fields have different disciplines, which would require distinguish management philosophies of the president. In the other word, Rosa could succeed in S company doesn’t mean that she could repeat it in F company. In this sense, the arguer's reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that this scenario is unlikely to weaken this premise, which could completely reverse the rest of evidence as well as the conclusion.
Secondly, the author assumes that the fallen profits would be continuing in the future, which lacks of warranted evidence. It is very likely to be a temporary phenomenon and the trend would be reversed to high profits in the next season. Maybe last there quarters is a special period in one year, during which low sales amount is common and all the other companies come across same things as well. Perhaps in this period of time, parents are busying working and lots of students are concentrating on their school work. In this sense, the reference that the reason of falling profits is the false judgments made by Pat will be challenged.



And then, the author also argues that the money that would provide for Rose is worthy because the increasing profits would be expected soon. However, even if Rose would finish a great job in F Company as well as what he had done In S, we could never know whether her salary would amount to her work. Possibly her future job would not be valuable enough to her high salary. And some other ideal alternatives persons that could be made for taking charge of F Company are not offered. Those ideal presidents may have abilities to run F Company’s business and require low salaries. Thus, by doing these choices, not only the cost of company will decrease, but also find the right solution of its problem.


To sum up, although the author’s intention that increasing F Company’s profits is beneficial, he falsely figures out the conclusion before identifying the comparability between two firms and creates an untenable logic chain ignoring the actual reason of defeat and success of those companies. To reach the cited conclusion, the author should provide more evidence about the two firms in running their business and analysis their sales statistics of nowadays and history. After all, a wrong arrangement of presidents is concerned with the destiny of F Company.

xmaszztUID: 2796708

In this argument, the author suggests the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company to appoint Rosa Winnings who is the president of Starlight Jewelry in the current president Pat Salvo’s place. He predicts that their profits will increase if the measure carried out. At first glance, the argument might be somehow reasonable, but close scrutiny reveals that it contains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.

First, the author attributes the fact that the declined profit to their president Pat Salvo. Without any other situation and details were provided, we can not find out the true reason of the declined profits. Perhaps the Financial Crisis affected the profit which can not impute to anybody in the company. Or perhaps just because the indolence of the employees made the profit fall while Pat Salvo is dutiful so that it would nullification to ask for Pat Salvo resignation. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author can not reasonable suggest to resign the current president.

Second, there is no evidence testify that the increasing profits is merely the contribution of Rosa neither—it may the result of multiple causes; perhaps she is only take over the position and the employees of Starlight Jewelry are industrious. Or perhaps Starlight Jewelry company will soon face a sharply profits decline. In a word, we do not know the capacity of Rosa. Even assuming Rosa is masterful in a jewelry company, it is still doubtful if she can afford her position in Fancy Toy Company. It is possible that the toy company would continue its declining profits because of the difference between the tread of toy or jewelry which Rosa is not adept in. So I can not accept author’s conclusion by this erroneous evidence.

What’s more, it is considerable that if it will be well worth to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving. Perhaps except Rosa many other people could be competent for this position with a low salary. It will advisable to consider other candidates not only Rosa. With these suspicious, I still can not accept author’s point that Rosa would take over Pat.

In sum, the author’s conclusion is not supported as it stands. To bolster it, the author must provide more information and evidence to persuade other that Rosa will affect the profits to increase. To better assess the problem, the author also need to consider other candidates to have a wider range of options.