本帖最后由 297095637 于 2010-6-14 00:25 编辑
第一次写A，求各位大大的砖块，意见和建议....
Topic:
Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour. Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent. But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period. Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville
want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.
Essay:
This argument,through comparing the number of automobile accidents in Forestville where the speed limit is higher and therefore the number is bigger than Elmsford with Elmsford,seems to be reasonable at the first glance.But actually,there are many logic errors of which three will be listed below so that it is easy to prove it wrong.
Firstly,we can easily find that six months is apparent not a longtime enough to get the conclusion that it is the speed limit that makes the number of automobile accidents in Forestville higher than that in Elmsford.The weather in Forestville may happen to be rainy in this six months so that many people who didn't drive to work have to drive now what leads to a increase both in the number of cars on roads of Forestville and in number of automobile accidents.But in Elmsford, the weather being sunny during the six months every one would like to walk to work to enjoy the fresh air every what makes a contribution to the decrease of number of automobile accidents in Elmsford.
What is more,Forestville and Elmsford are two separated sections so that it is unreasonable to compare the two places to claim that speed limit is the reason of the difference of number of automobile accidents between them. More shape corners or more clings,what make accidents easy to happen, may be the real reasons leading to the difference since that there is not any evidence in this argument that can improve this assumption is impossible.
Thirdly,we have to admit that human being also plays a vital role in the happening of automobile accidents.According to this argument above,we can not ignore the possibility that drivers in Forestvilleare the young with little experience or too old to avoid accident effectively while in Elmsford,almost every driver is experienced and drives carefully so that the numbers of automobile accidents in these regions are so different.We can also assume that the population in Forestville is much bigger than that in Elmsford and more people means more accidents.
As what I have declared above,it is impossible to get the conclusion that reducing Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase is the way to reduce the number of accidents.More surveys should be made to analyse that what exactly different factors have different influence on the number of automobile accidents.
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发表于 2010-6-9 21:59:03
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