【Flyer杀G】小组-6.26作业 argument 118

wagner1985UID: 2838595

The statement asserts that the higher tourism, brought by the higher temperature in the next year, will cause more problems for accommodation of conference. Based on this demonstration, choosing a less popular winter is reasonable. To justify this point, the arguer point out the Sun City is a well-known tourism place with attractive beaches and good weather, and thus the warmer temperature will certainly arise the number of tourists by then. However, the argument is not rigorous on several points.
        Firstly, the reasoning above relied on the basic fact that the temperature will increase next year. With even a little piece of meteorology knowledge, we can find the forecasting in this subject has a very low percent of success, which means the fact may be largely deviated from the expectation of the scientist. Even in common sense, the weather prediction in the TV often has a lower than half of success. So the temperature in next year will not increase with certainty. If that happened, all of the deduction above will be useless.
        Secondly, even if the temperature next year is higher on average all over the country, the Sun City may probably have a weather which is colder than before by then, which lead a lower year in tourism. Then all of the difficulties as the author imagined will not actually exist.
        Thirdly, in case the whole country, including the Sun City, really have higher temperature than former year, the temperatures in different places in comparison, will not necessarily drive too many people in other cities go to the Sun City. Because the warmer winter in these cities would somehow make folks feel better than before, which means fewer people decide to go journey.
      Finally, with no reason, the author alleges that the more tourists in the city will directly affect the transportation, available rooms in hotel and restaurants. Because assuming there is really a drastic booming in the tourists, who cannot be easily accommodated by the hotels and restaurants as the usual scale, to some extent, the businesses may still have some ways to cater for the potential demand, even temporarily. So the problem will not seem as severe as author supposed.
          In conclusion, the recommendation for moving the conference locality is not well supported. To convince me, the researcher needs to make more investigation about the comparison of temperatures in different places, and make a more profound survey about where the tourists come from, and then we can make percise estimation about the increasing number of population.

红绡UID: 2839171

1# wagner1985
修改---by潇

    The statement asserts that the higher tourism, brought by the higher temperature in the next year, will cause more problems for accommodation of conference（不只是住宿问题）. Based on this demonstration, choosing a less popular winter is reasonable. To justify this point, the arguer point out the Sun City is a well-known tourism place with attractive beaches and good weather, and thus the warmer
（higher） temperature will certainly arise the number of tourists by then. However, the argument is not rigorous on several points.
    Firstly, the reasoning above relied on the basic fact that the temperature will increase next year. With even a little piece of meteorology knowledge, we can find the forecasting in this subject has a very low percent of success, which means the fact may be largely deviated from the expectation of the scientist.(说天气预报成功率不高不大合适，还是说成有时候会不准确吧) Even in common sense, the weather prediction in the TV often has a lower than half of success. So the temperature in next year will not increase with certainty. If that happened, all of the deduction above will be useless.
    Secondly, even if the temperature next year is higher on average all over the country, the Sun City may probably have a weather which is colder than before by then, which lead a lower year in tourism. Then all of the difficulties as the author imagined will not actually exist.
    Thirdly, in case the whole country, including the Sun City, really have higher temperature than former year, the temperatures in different places in comparison, will not necessarily drive too many people in other cities go to the Sun City. Because the warmer winter in these cities would somehow make folks feel better than before, which means fewer people decide to go journey.
    Finally, with no reason, the author alleges that the more tourists in the city will directly affect the transportation, available rooms in hotel and restaurants. （这里说with no reason不合适，因为如果旅游人数激增，的确会影响到这几点。应该说就算旅游人数激增，也不一定会影响会议出席。然后举出原因来论证下。）Because assuming there is really a drastic booming in the tourists, who cannot be easily accommodated by the hotels and restaurants as the usual scale, to some extent, the businesses may still have some ways to cater for the potential demand, even temporarily.（for example?哪些方式来满足需要，这里展开些会更有力） So the problem will not seem as severe as author supposed.
    In conclusion, the recommendation for moving the conference locality is not well supported. To convince me, the researcher needs to make more investigation about the comparison of temperatures in different places, and make a more profound survey about where the tourists come from, and then we can make precise estimation about the increasing number of population.



中间正文部分第二和第三可以合并下，都是攻击温度高所以旅游业热度攀升这一点的。