【Flyer杀G作文组】6月26日Argument118-By Candygege

candygegeUID: 2792059

118. The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.
"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists."
难度：★★★★

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. This newsletter states that the location of the national astronomy association yearly winter conference should be changed just because the possible higher temperatures may cause more tourisms as well as fewer available rooms and then probabily reduce the attendance at the conference.
   First, all conclusions were based on the higher-than-average temperatures in Sun City, which was a prediction caused by various sources. Where did the sources come from and what kind of them were both ignored, therefore, we have enough reasons to suppose the temperature would be as usual and then the conference would carry on normally.
   Second, let us assume the sources reliable, but the higher temperature can not result in a more visitors definitely. Having a trip is a complicate decision, influenced by many factors such as the economical level, time and so on. For instance, fewer people would go on vacation to beach in the period of economic crisis even the temperature was higher than ever.
   Third, the author mentioned the unavailable rooms and crowed public place. Maybe he/she wanted to prove that the attendee would have difficulties to book a room or active in the park, however, what they should do is to present at the conference not visiting. And the conference would begin one year later, the organizers have enough time to implement all these things if they want. And the attendee would solve these problems well if they considered the meeting was important and necessary for themselves. The attendance at the conference would not be reduced, or in other words, even the present reduced it will not result from the reasons the author mentions.
   Amusingly, according to the logic of the author, maybe the attendance would increase rather than decrease. The person attended the conference would like to enjoy a cooler vacation at the same time. So, it is a wise decision for them to attend this meeting in Sun City known for its attractive beaches and good weather.
   In addition, the Sun City, a traditional location of their conference in winter, must possess many advantages when they choose. Although, the primary reasons were unknown to us, it is sure that the organizers absolutely had realized the fact that this place is a tourist attraction especially during winter with crowed parks and restaurants. Considered all of these, they still adopt such a decision. And then, it appears unreasonable that change the conference location as the same reason that the organizers have been considered.
   Overall, the reasoning behind changing place seems logical as presented in the newsletter, but before any final decisions are made should think over the logic and reasons all above at least.

柏拉图的世界UID: 2581296

1# candygege
The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. This newsletter states that the location of the national astronomy association yearly winter conference should be changed just because the possible higher temperatures may cause more tourisms as well as fewer available rooms and then probabily reduce the attendance at the conference.[第一句好眼熟^ ^]
   First, all conclusions were based on the higher-than-average temperatures in Sun City, which was a prediction caused by various sources. Where did the sources come from and what kind of them were both ignored, therefore, we have enough reasons to suppose the temperature would be as usual and then the conference would carry on normally.
   Second, let us assume the sources reliable, but the higher temperature can not result in a more visitors definitely. Having a trip is a complicate decision, influenced by many factors such as the economical level, time and so on. For instance, fewer people would go on vacation to beach in the period of economic crisis even the temperature was higher than ever.
   Third, the author mentioned the unavailable rooms and crowed public place. Maybe he/she wanted to prove that the attendee would have difficulties to book a room or active in the park, however, what they should do is to present at the conference not visiting. And the conference would begin one year later, the organizers have enough time to implement all these things if they want. And the attendee would solve these problems well if they considered the meeting was important and necessary for themselves. The attendance at the conference would not be reduced, or in other words, even the present reduced it will not result from the reasons the author mentions.
   Amusingly, according to the logic of the author, maybe the attendance would increase rather than decrease.[Probably] The person attended the conference would like to enjoy a cooler vacation at the same time. So, it is a wise decision for them to attend this meeting in Sun City known for its attractive beaches and good weather.[这段感觉说的不够充分，只是简单的举了个例子，没有什么说理，显得单薄]
   In addition, the Sun City, a traditional location of their conference in winter, must possess many advantages when they choose. Although, the primary reasons were unknown to us, it is sure that the organizers absolutely had realized the fact that this place is a tourist attraction especially during winter with crowed parks and restaurants. Considered all of these, they still adopt such a decision. And then, it appears unreasonable that change the conference location as the same reason that the organizers have been considered.
   Overall, the reasoning behind changing place seems logical as presented in the newsletter, but before any final decisions are made should think over the logic and reasons all above at least.[最好能直接说明原文是有漏洞的，而不是建议再考虑考虑]

To conclude,
攻击点过多了，显得都没怎么展开。
还是记得一定做到specific和detail，只要少数几个假设，并都说得清清楚楚，一步一步推出原结论不成立就已经非常好了。不要贪多。

candygegeUID: 2792059

2# 柏拉图的世界

文章的第一句是从范文上看的：）
A中很多句子感觉都可以直接用模板句。。
不知道这样可不可以啊~