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TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 425
TIME: 00:47:35
DATE: 2010-07-11 19:52:35
The editorial suggests the decline of arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen see. Carefully analyzed, you will find there's something fishy inside the reason of the conclusion, which make the suggestion unconvincing at all, and I will show you weak points of the editorial.
Firstly, the whole editorial is based on reports of local hunters, which is not authorities and comprehensive. May be local hunters provide such kind of reports, but the editorial cannot persuade us to believe that the arctic deer populations decline actually. No matter now familiar the local hunters with the local arctic deer, we are sure that the editorial have not taken out scientific research to support its assertion. Basing on such kind of assumption makes the suggestion of the editorial lacks of credibility.
However, even assume that the arctic populations really declined, there's no evidence to show that the recent global warming caused the decline. Since there are only reports tell us that two phenomena appear simultaneously, but they have not researched into the relationships between them. The global warming trends may have caused ice to melt but the reports haven't indicated that the migration of arctic deer had been effected.
Furthermore, we suppose that the global warming has bad effect on the migration of arctic deer, but the editorial has not exclude other possibilities may bring about the decline in arctic deer populations. That is to say there's no supporting evidence to show that the global warming caused the massive dead of arctic deer and the author editorial rushed to make such kind of judgments. There's possibility like water pollution and over-hunting, all have not been foreclosed.
Moreover, let’s suppose that the global warming lead to the death of arctic deer but there's no evidence to support the editorial providing facts and figures to illustrate that arctic deer die on their way of migration across the frozen sea. The global warming may cause the vegetation cover change of the habitats of arctic deer or the accumulation of their natural enemies of competitive species that share the same foodstuffs or habitable space. There so many factors may cause the decline of arctic deer populations other than the environment change for their migration, so what the editorial suggested is very suspicious.
Based on the above mentioned analysis, there are so many weak points inside the course of reasoning of the conclusion of the editorial, so more information, evidences and researches in-depth are needed to make it rigorously reasoned. |
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