第一篇Argument15 请大家多多指教啊 万分感激

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15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."


Grounding on the survey which indicated the respondents' desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, considering the fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores, the argument comes to the conclusion that Old Dairy Industries, a company marketing a lot of food high in fat and cholesterol, is likely to decrease in its sales and profits. The argument, therefore, suggests its stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company. However, there are some logical flaws in this argument.

First of all, there is no necessary cause-effect relationship between the respondents’ desire and the sales of the food produced by Old Dairy Industries. A desire is just a desire. It is very possible that the people who wished to reduce their consumption of high-fat food would keep buying them for other reasons, such as their physiological needs. Another possible alternative is that maybe the customers of the high-fat products of Old Dairy Industries had been always accounting for a small proportion of the population in that area. In that case, the 20 percent of the respondents who didn’t show their wish to reduce the consumption of high-fat products was very likely to keep the company’s sale as before. Furthermore, the company could adopt some business strategy, such as a price cut, to increase the sales of high-fat products.

Would a diminishment in the sales of high-fat foods lead to a decrease of the profits of Old Dairy Industries? It is still open to question. The author of the argument above fails to recognize other possible cases. For instance, the sales of high-fat products might only account for a little proportion of the total profits. Then the diminishment of the sales in this small proportion would not affect the total greatly. Another possible alternative is that people would buy more low-fat foods produced by Old Dairy Industries after they reduced their consumption of high-fat foods. So the total profits of the company could be kept or even increased.

Finally, the author’s suggestion to the stockholders and the investors is easily arguable, even if we admitted a decrease in the profits, because the stock is also affected by many other essentials, such as the government’s policy, the capital flow in the stock market and so on. If the government relieved the tax burden on the food industry in order to promote the development, the stock of Old Dairy might keep going upward in spite of the decrease in its profits. Another alternative is that some fund companies might choose Old Dairy stock as their main target and invest a lot of money in it so that the stock price would be raised. What’s more, the current decrease in profits may lead to an industrial transformation. The management committee of Old Dairy might decide to focus on the producing and the development of products containing less fat and cholesterol and therefore make Old Dairy more profitable and competitive. In this case, the stockholders should keep their shares for their long-term interests and the investors should also consider Old Diary as their investment objective.

Overall, the reasoning behind the author’s suggestion to the stockholders and investors is easily arguable. Before the final decision is made, the stockholders and investors should consider more alternatives so that they can make the best choice. （558 words）