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本帖最后由 怒放的生命 于 2010-8-2 20:47 编辑
我写的最认真的一篇了。恭请各位 !有拍必回!大家一起讨论吧
Argue 38
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council." An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
The author developed the argument through a succession of claims and reasoning. However, the argument contains certain facets that are fallible. A threshold problem is that the author ignores those who are infected with colds but refuses to seek help. The author also fails to notice other explanations for lesser incidence of colds. Again, neither an investigation nor statistics have indicated colds the leading contribution to absenteeism. Adding that there is so little information about Ichthaid to reach any firm conclusion, the argument fails to convey an ordered process of accumulation and rationalization.
First of all, people turn to doctors less frequently doesn't amount to lesser frequencies to catch a cold. Perhaps people, also told the experience, are prone to take some medicine and adequate sleep and relaxation when dealing with colds unless they become severely deteriorating. It is obviously ridiculous that judging the situation of cold-catching merely by means of calculating the times people appeal to doctors.
Even if one accepts the accuracy of the statistical data, the author arbitrarily assumes that the lower frequency of colds is
attributable to a high consumption of fish. But the author fails to provide satisfying evidence to bolster the conclusion combined with alternative potentialities. Such substitutes might include the fact that East Meria is a geological region where the climate changes little or the weather is warmer and moister, in which case people are less susceptible to colds. It is entirely possible that citizens as a whole emphasize the predominance of daily health. Other expositions are left out purposively, including a pleasant sanitation and effective preventive measures. Factors related above could elucidate the lower frequency of colds and could undermine the dependability and reliability of the causal relationship.
What's more, the author draws a conclusion and goes so far as to appeal merely to social convention. The author should have provided credible statistical data, yet he fails to, which would convince others that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences and lower incidence of colds, thus, would undoubtably lessen absenteeism. Or at least, the author would have cited a persuasive survey whose result could more or less verify the argument. Since the author takes it for granted that colds are totally responsible to absence, the generalization drawn might not apply to most situation.
Finally, even acknowledging the exactness of all stated above, the argument remains dubious. The author mistakenly considers that fish oil plays the same role as fish. Not only hasn't the author present reference material to exhibit that they can substitute each other, but provides no grounds that it is Ichthaid, rather than extra ingredient in the fish oil, that comes to play. So little notice is taken of these issues that the argument eventually collapses.
Unwise and irrational, the author claims consecutive as well as groundless evidence, through which an ultimate recommendation is originated, an unconvincing one as a matter of cause. The argument could be improved by providing evidence that colds are indeed the most intense reason for absence, and that eating a considerable amount of fish is sufficient to account for immunity to colds. It could be further strengthened by justifying that Ichthaid is of the highest service to preventing colds. |
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