第一篇Argument 8月11号就考了··求各位大侠指点~~ 泪奔啊~

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It is knownthat in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layerto thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation thatreaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, thepopulation of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes(1)has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicatetissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be thecase that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamandereggs and prevented them from hatching(2,3). This process will no doubt causepopulation declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species


In this argument,the author concludes that ultraviolet radiation would cause population declinesof many species. To buttress this conclusion, the author points out that thepopulation of a species of salamander has declined due to the ultravioletradiation. At first glance, this argument seems reasonable, but furtherreflection reveals that these evidences neither constitute a logical statementnor lend strong support to make this argument sound and invulnerable. Thisargument is flawed in several critical aspects.

To begin with, theargument relies on the dubious assumption that the ultraviolet radiation caninfluence the area like mountain lakes where the salamander lays its eggs.Although this is entirely possible, the argument lacks evidence to confirm thisassumption. It is quite possible that ultraviolet radiation distinguishes indifferent region. Perhaps the area where the salamanders live suffers a normalamount of UA which would not harm the eggs. Thus, without evidence tosubstantiate this assumption, the author can’t reasonably conclude that it mustbe UA that damages the eggs and prevents them from hatching.

The second flawthat weakens the logic of this argument is that the author assumes too hastilythat the decline of this salamander due to the increase of the UA. However, withso many factors are attributable for the decline of one species, the authorignores other possible ways---such as the deterioration of their habitat, theincreasing number of the predators and insufficiency of food. Lacking firmevidence that the increase of UA is the only reason for the decline ofsalamander population, the author can’t justify any conclusion persuasively.

Lastly, even ifthe author can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, the author’sassertion that the UA process will cause population decline in other species isstill unwarranted. Common sense tells us that things rarely remain the samebetween different species. As we know, many factors should be taken toconsideration, such as the original number of the species and the environmentthey live in. Unless the author can provide more information showing thatthings remain the same between salamanders and the other species, the author can’t justifiably reach the finalconclusion.

In sum, theargument is unconvincing as it stands since it is not based on valid evidenceor sound reasoning. To strengthen it, the author would have to demonstrate thatthe UA can influence the area where the salamanders live and the amount of UAis excessively strong to damage the salamander eggs. Also, the author mustprovide more evidence to rule out the possible explanations which mightcontribute to the population decline of the salamander. Finally, to betterassess this argument, more information about the differences between thesalamander and other species is needed.


黑体为题目 下面是我写的 用了模板 字数不多 450的样子 求各位狠拍~~~ 只有10天了~~ 大家帮我一把啊~~ 感激不尽~~~