Issue184，模考第二篇，盲目理论化是错误的，留链必返

shadow1987UID: 2605840

TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 339          TIME: 00:45:00          DATE: 2010-8-1 11:32:02

思路：

第一段：只能insofar同意题目，认为没有数据的理论化确实有时候会制造麻烦，但是我们同时不能否认科学理论的建立需要有假设，所以我的观点是我们可以再没有数据前理论化，只是在假设后需小心论证就是了。

第二段：Concussion，说没有数据的理论化可能导致一些假象，一些所谓的常识就是这样，比如说Aristotle认为越重的物体下落越快，后来被Galileo推翻了。

第三段：However，说理论化是假设的一种，在没有办法收集数据的情况下我们完全可以先进行wild but educated guess，这是一种思考问题的方式。从Ptolemy说到Copernicus，他们的理论就是经历了建立和推翻的过程。

第四段：说theorization可以看做是收集数据的一种方式，比如说竞技体育，老教练总结了战术，新教练运用，但是效果是various的，遇到的不同conditions就是data，他们可以complete这些理论。

第五段：Conclusion

I agree with the speaker's claim insofar that to theorize before a scientist collect enough data is dangerous because the various aspects that we cannot consider comprehensively. However, the establishment of a theory also requires scientific assumptions even they will be defeated after data collecting and carefully deducing. Hence, I firmly held the view that we actually could theorize before we have data, but these theories can only be taken as dubious assumptions before we prove them.

In the first place, I must concede that it is irrational to draw any conclusion before conduct experiments or data gathering. Due to the complicated universe we are living in, entire human beings including those giant scientists are just junior explorers. Nonetheless, some people would like to theorize some phenomenon simply base on their observation and some of theories became so-called common senses afterwards. Fortunately, thanks to some other people who still hold the precious skepticism and found that some of those common senses are turn out to be illusions.  For example, in the dark ages, most of the people trust Aristotle's theory that the heavier an object is, the faster it would falls. However, as we all known, Galileo, a great astronomer after Aristotle, held the famous experiment on Tower of Pisa. When the different-weighted iron ball fell on the floor concurrently, the old theory has being out of date forever. Therefore, to theorize without concrete data could make grave mistakes.

However, we should also be aware of the significant function which presumption has in scientific searches. Facing a totally unknown filed, we can do nothing but guess, and with the wild but educated guess, we could generalize them into the presumptions that provide us the way to study. In this case, we cannot collect enough data as we wish. Although, perhaps the presumptions would be defeated in further researches, however, every step involves in this process actually contributes to the final achievement. For instance, Ptolemy supposed that the earth is the centre of universe and established the geocentric theory which was overturned by Copernicus, and the latter supposed that the sun is the centre of universe and constructed the heliocentric theory which was also improved by other astronomers. The process of scientific development is actually the process of theories’ theorization and disruption. Therefore, under this circumstance, to assume without data could be seen as a way of thinking.

In addition, the process of theories’ theorization and disruption can also helps us collecting more sufficient data. Take a look at modern competition sports such as football and basketball, the elder coaches theorize the different strategies with their own experience, and then, new coaches practice these strategies and have different effects. Perhaps some of these strategies are very effective but some are not under particular condition, these results can be taken as data, and consequently, the new coaches add this data into original strategies and make them more complete. In this way, data gathering can benefit from theorization.

To sum up, even the theorization could make mistakes, but itself is not a grave mistake. As I have analyzed above, under some specious circumstance wherein we are incapable to collect data, trying to suppose and theorize is a way of thing. The process of scientific development is actually the process of theories’ theorization and disruption, and moreover, this process can also helps us collecting more sufficient data. Consequently, I find the speaker’s claim to some extent too extreme.