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ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
The argument concludes that C Note, a jazz club in Monroe would be a greatly profitable enterprise that banks should place investment on it. To support the conclusion, the author cited the following fact:(1) C Note would owns the whole local market for its nearest competitor is 65 miles away;(2) jass has a high popularity among local people;(3) a national wide study shows that typical jazz fans spends close to 1000 dollars per year on jazz entertainment. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the conclusion.
First, the distance between C Note and its nearest competitor do not necessarily indicate that C Note would have the local market all to itself. It is entirely possible that local residents would be attracted by other jazz club for their more compelling peformance, more comfortable circumstances, or lower costs. Without ruling out these possibilitis that other jazz clubs would share the local market, the author can not convice me merely on the basis that C Note is the only jazz club in Monroe. After all, with the help of modern transportation, 65 miles or more are acutually short for people.
Secondly, the popularity of jazz noted in the article accomplishes little toward bolstering the conclusion. After all, the success of an enterprice lies more than vast number of potential customers.Moreover, given that people in Monroe have more access to jazz music, for instance Monroe's jazz festival and radio program "Jazz Nightly", it is as likely that they would not pay for the C Note for they have enjoy enough jazz by other cheaper means. If so, the fact would further undermine the attractiveness of C Note.
Finally, as for the survey mentioned in the argument, the average spends of nationwide typical jazz fan do not necessarily reflect those of residents in Monroe. Perhaps the income of local people is below the average standard of the whole nation, or perhaps residents here prefer to spend their money elsewhere than a jazz club. Meanwhile, the author provide no clear evidence on the number of jazz fans in Monroe.
In sum, the argument is logically flawed and unconvincing as it stands. To bloster the conclusion the author must provide enough evidence-perhaps by a survey among local people- that C Note enjoys the majority of the local market and people in Monroe are willing to spend their incomes on it.
(2010-7-15 18:01:00) |
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