Argument15 帮忙看下能拿几分？？

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 440
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/7/31 22:30:09
In this newsletter, the author makes a conclusion that Old Dairy stockholders should sell theri shares and other investors not
to purchases stocks in this company which produce foods containing fats and cholesterol. To support this conclusion, the author cites evidences that the survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containning fats and choelsterol. At first glance, the conclusion maybe somehow reasonable, while close scrutiny reveals that it contains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.
To begin with, the survey lacks some important information. Firstly, it doesn't clarify who are the respondents. Perhaps in thie survey, many girls are interviewed and in their point of view, they are not willing to take in foods which containing fats and cholesterol and want to choose low-fat products in order to keep fit. While other people, such as children, old people and young men, they are still like these foods. Then the result of the survey can not prove that the sales of the high fats food will be decreased. Secondly, even the survey is believable, it still can not strongly prove that most people will not buy the Old Dairy foods. Perhaps the products in this company are very popular, although it contains fats and cholesterol, people still can't help buying the food of Old Dairy. These foods are so delicious that people may give up other high fats foods but cannot get rid of the Old Dariy's products. Without ruling out the possibilities, the author cannot asserts that his conclusion is reliable.
In addition, even though people now don't want to try the foods with high fats, it doesn't mean the sales of the Old Dairy must reduce. It is quite possibile that the company has already noticed this phenominon and they also produce the new products which contains low fats and cholesterol, if so, the profits of the company may not decrease,on the countary, if it is very delicious and popular, the company may make more money. Without ruling out the possible alternative, we cannot affirm that the author's conclusion is reasonable.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cites in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that all the people including old people, young children and young men, they all do not willing to buy foods containing high fats and cholesterol. To better evaluate the conclusion, we would need more information that the sales of Old Dariy does decrease for they only sells the high fats foods which are not popular now in the market.