【10G10Hawk】小组8月10日任务——Argument176

finalleUID: 2812504

TOPIC: ARGUMENT176 - The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company.

"A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."

The argument presented above is relaatively sound, however, the arguer fails to recognize all the elements necessary to evaluate his situation. The idea that money should be invested in obtaining the exclusive right of a new margarine may be a helpfule one, but perhaps not help increase our profits. To clarify, it may be necessary to obtain the exlusive right, however can that increase subsstantially within a very short time in profit still is questionable.

First of all, the arguer fails to demonstrate that there are not side effects of Venadial since its metabolic response is not yet well understood, the arguer fails to take into account the possibility that the combined effects of the new margarine and the particular diet and living habits of the Alta people may have contributed to the reduction of cholesterol levels and risks of heart attack. Without analyzing and weighing the advantages and disadvantages thoroughly about Venadial, the argument cannot guarantee undoubtedly making a profit.

We might also ask: How can Alta's selling situation be applied to worldwide?Many differences should be taken into account. Perhaps in other areas, people's cholesterol levels and possibility of heart attacks is so low that it is unnecessary for their adoption of this margarine. Since there still have many other factors contribute to Venadial selling, the arguer fails to provide more specific information about selling of Venadial in the country of Alta. Besides, the rguer gave a hasty generalization : internationall business are more complex than local one, moreover, not all people tend to use margarine, in some regions ,they might only use real butter.The problem is that key terms in the argument are too vague to be meaningful.


Another element to consider is this: perhaps the assumption that if our company obtain the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time is unwarranted. Furthermore, the arguer provides no information regarding he costs of producing, transporting, and marketing this new margarine as well as the presence of other competing medicines in the market, in the absence of which it is impossible to predict whether the business can make huge profits.Since Venadial are derived from the resin of pine trees, there are many other methods to produce the similiar margarine. thus the exclusive right to sell Venadial might not works well since other company can made the similiar margarine.


To sum up, the arguer’s argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cite some evidence that is more persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account.

finalleUID: 2812504

占座2

In this argument, the author asserts that if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially quickly. To espouse these conclusions, the author assumes that cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent and the risk of heart attack by one-third who consumed Venadial daily. Furthermore, author concludes that this new margarine is popular. From my perspective, none of these assertions of assumptions is well supported by cogent premises and reasonable demonstration.

Fundamentally, the main fallacy is that there is no evidence shows that Alta is the only place has the condition to produce the resin. First, it is quite possible that every kind of pine trees also can be the material of resin. In china, there are more than 10 kinds to pine trees, especially in the southeast. If all the resins can produce the margarine, Venadial will not 【be】the only production. So the profits about this kind of margarine will be divided into several parts. The author cannot draw the conclusion that our profits are sure to increase within short time.【first后面的接什么了？Second哪去了】

Even assuming the Alta is the only place to produce the margarine. It still has another fallacy that weakens in this argument. Before researcher supports the survey about the response after eat the margarine, we cannot sure the margarine is not harm to human. Perhaps Venadial has the function of fell the cholesterol levels and the risk of heart attack, but it may cause another disease.So if the margarine is harmful, we will lose all the money which pay on Venadial let alone profits. This is【a】 possibility can make the author's assumption that we obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial will increase the profits groundless.

Moreover, in common sense, the procedure to produce the resin is not very hard. The profits is depends on the cost【of】 the price, we cannot make the conclusion that the cost of the resin is cheap and a high price 【the author没有说是高价格 只是说能快速的赚钱】can be accepted by the consumers. And if we sell Venadial internationally, the cost of transport 【should】will be considered. As a matter of fact, if we want to domain this production in the world, it will takes so much money on the advertisement and the equipment that we are unable to earn the profits in a short time.【主要攻击短时间内赚钱】
还有个攻击点，就是报告只是针对一个地方 而不能运用到全国。

In a nutshell, I have analyzed so many flaws in the argument. In my opinion, the argument should reason more convincingly. So if I were the arguer I would account the evidence such as the special of the pine tree in the Alta to make the argument more cogent while the survey about Venadial works by activating a metabolic response also needs to be supported