【10G10Hawk】小组8月11日任务——Argument209

PsMaggieUID: 2861847

n this recommendation, the manager tends to replace the recent president Pat Salvo by president of Starlight Jewelry Rosa Winnings because of the decreasing profits in the last three quarters. However, the manager fails to take other factors into account that may lead to the fluctuation in profits of specific companies.

To begin with, three quarters is too short a period to judge the achievement of president. The manager fails to rule out other factors that may cause the fall of profits in last three quarters.(这两句是两个完全不同的逻辑错误，第一个讲的是关于时间推广的问题，第二个讲的是忽略了影响因素的问题) The short-term shift of the consumers’ interest in the toy industry, for example, might lead to a fall of profits in the overall industry because of another alternative emerging such as video games for children. To the Fancy Toy Company, the long-term profits are also an important index to assess the managing ability of president. Perhaps the profits over the past several years( the manager judge Rosa Winnings by the profits over the past several years) were increasing in a row, but because of the seasonal factors, such as the baby boom this year, which led to the considerable decrease of the baby toys the profits in the last three quarter fall drastically. Without the comparison of profits in the long-term period and among other toy company, the manager cannot simply conclude that the wrong leadership directly cause the fall of their profits and ask her leave.

Moreover, similarly, only by the increasing profits in the past several years cannot we consider that Rosa Winnings has the better ability to lead the company. The increasing profits in the past several years may exist in all companies in the jewelry industry because of the special change in jewelry market. For instance, with the rise of the living standard, more people like to buy jewelry in the past several years leading to the great demand for jewelry. Thus, from the analysis above, it is unreasonable for the manager asserts that changing president will certainly give rise to the profits.（这一段感觉有点牵强的，一般去评判一个leader是否合格，看公司多年来的profits就是一项指标啊，文中也说了是several years，这个样本也足够了。）
Finally, even if Rosa Winnings run Starlight Jewelry by use of Rosa’s outstanding ability of leadership, there is no evidence showing that the Fancy Toy Company will get the same result as Starlight Jewelry. These two companies are quite different, even not in the same industry. （中式英语啊中式英语）We know nothing about the economic conditions of the companies which are certainly connected with the working of president. If there are lots of differences in the operational model, the scale and the management system between the two companies,（这句插入语好像插得不对，应该要加个for example, such as之类的吧） Rosa must need a period to get him or herself used to the environment in the Fancy Toy Company. Whether Rosa will make the profits keep rising remains unknown to us. （factor太少了）
In conclusion, the board must consider the general status of the Fancy Toy Company and the overall industry, otherwise it may be even worse.