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The statement that the sales of Gulf Coast oysters and thus the profits of the company would surely be on the rise in the following days seems at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. After all, it was stated in the argument that ways to eradicate those bacteria, the chief criminal to the product’s safety, have been devised by scientists recently. However, before the author can rightly make a prediction about the company’s future, the following logical fallacies must be considered.

First of all，the author assumes that consumers favors oysters from northeastern Atlantic Coast even they are more expansive only because of the “bacteria accident” happened sometimes ago. However, we understand the factors influencing customers’ choices between companies include many aspects besides health issues. Whether the oysters suit the locals’ tastes, how well the company’s propaganda actions are and even the attitude of the salesperson would have great effect on sales conditions.A shortcoming in any of the factors mentioned above would make the influence of enhanced safety on profits less conspicuous as predicted by the author.

Second, the author provides no solid evidence that the new method of killing bacteria would be applied successfully by the company into manufacturing procedures. Considering the large gap between scientific labs and real factory production, it would be too arbitrary to state that new method automatically guarantees a rise in profits. Before more details of the techniques and the experiments are provided, the author cannot rightly give any statement concerning the future sales of the company.

The last but not the least, even if the new method turns out tosuccessfully eradicate bacteria in Gulf Coast products and raises customers’ faith in the company again, it could still prove to be a failure to improve sales considering its cost effect. With new devises to be implanted in large scale and additional expenditure on new employees, the investment itself may even outstrip potential profits of this action, which would act as the last hit to crush the company. Therefore, it is the company’s high rank executives’ duty to carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of this movement before making a final decision.

The causal relationship between the safety of a certain product and its sales condition can sometimes be quite subtle and even misleading. However, for the reasons mentioned above, more careful considerations are necessary before a reasonable guideline could be made about the future of the Gulf Coast Company. After all, a wrong action which would lead the company deeper into the current swamp would be worse than no actions at all.