本人的第一篇习作，恳请各位拍砖

goldenbbbcccUID: 2877361

:)因为我机考比较晚，再加上本人神经紧不起来，所以可能现在试写有点晚，而且现在有点迷茫，不知道该从哪些方面下手，所以恳请各路看官留下你们的板砖，

题目是A207，由于第一次实验，后面的时间没有抓紧，因此差点没有写完结尾


TOPIC: ARGUMENT207 - It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
WORDS: 424          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010/8/12 18:36:14

The arguer argues that because of the deplete of the ozone layer, the increase amount of the ultraviolet radiation reaches the surface of the earth.Thus, the salamander eggs which lack protection against the radiation, is less likely to hatch, resulting in the decrease in the population of the salamander. The plausible reasoning may seems convincing , but needs further discussion.
First of all, the author falsely establishes the causal relationship between the declination in population of salamander and the excessive amount of radiation. The author lists the facts that as the ozone layer becomes thiner than before, the population of salamander has suffered delination. But it's noticeable that the coincidence of such two events do not necessarily indicate that there exits possible relationship between them. It also possible that the pollution, which contaminates the river and the food that salamanders feed on, that result in the declination of the population of the salamander.
Another lacuna of the argument is that the author fail to provide sufficient evidence which will lend support to the assumption that it is the radiation that prevent many salamander egg from hatching.There is another possibility that rather than the effect of the radiation , the toxic substance generated in the process of manufacturing is the major cause of the low hatching rate of the salamander's egg.
The arguer said in the argument that "This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species".It can be specious but such conclusion relies on no further evidence proving that other species will react the same as the salamander did. It is undeniable that the industry pollution has had negative impact on the life of other species, but it is unfounded to assume that all the species living in the polluted environment will suffer from the declination of the population.Thus, the conclusion that the process will undoubtedly cause the population decline in other species.
The argument is formulated with defect because there is no sufficient evidence that is valid to support the line of reasoning. The author reasons that the egg of salamander lacks the protection, so there is a low rate in egg hatching. The author do not specify the protection that the eggs lack, thus, it is possible that the egg lacks the protection against the pollutants rather than the radiation.So, one can't reason that it is the radiation that hampers the hatching.
All in all, the arguer issues a pressing problem that need human consider furtherly the effect of industrilization. But , the defects that author bears in reasoning make this argument reflective , but misleading

ljz1990UID: 2837432

呵呵 是不是9月的呢~咱组个队改作文吧。。。

goldenbbbcccUID: 2877361

2# ljz1990
是啊是啊，最晚的那波了，9月16号呢，一起组队吧