新手初下水：argument 14 大球拍~~

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Argument 53：
The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine GreatGardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring.


This memo recommends that Green Thumb Gardening Center can earn a better profit by diversifying its stock of vegetable seeds. To justify this conclusion, the author cites a nationwide survey showing dissatisfaction about supermarket vegetables and growing sales figure of a local gardening magazine. However, the argument rests on a number of groundless assumptions making it suspicious on several grounds.


First of all, the author assumes that the result of the nationwide survey can well apply to the suburban town where the shop lies. However, the nationwide study showing clear trend of dissatisfaction toward supermarket vegetables does not necessarily apply to suburban areas. It is quite possible that this town do not follow these general trends since supermarkets may not be the major source of vegetables for villagers and they may have alternatives such as groceries or small stores. For that matter, dissatisfaction about supermarket food may have no significant influence on its vegetable consumption. Thus, the national survey that the argument cites amount to scant evidence that town residents will switch to growing vegetables themselves.


In the second place, in claiming that sales figures of the gardening magazine Great Gardens illustrates people’s interest in home-grown vegetables, the author unfairly assumes that interest in Gardening magazines leads to more gardening work and more specifically growing their own vegetables. Growing popularity of a single gardening magazine does not necessarily indicate people’s growing interest in gardening. Perhaps the magazine gains its popularity through attracting advertisements and local news. Or perhaps the magazine has recently launched a sales campaign in which prices are cut down sharply. For that matter, decrease in price and additional bonus will act to increase sales figures. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for the sales growth, the memo cannot convince me fully.


In the third place, even assuming there is a growing trend for town residents to grow their own vegetables; it is nevertheless groundless to suppose people will turn to Green Thumb Gardening Center for vegetable seeds. The memo unfairly infers that buying seeds from this Center is the only means of achieving the desired goal. The author overlooks other possible means of getting vegetable seeds, such as sharing seeds among neighborhoods, using their own stock of seeds or even getting seeds from other shops out of town. Without accounting for alternative means of achieving the same goal, the author cannot convince me that a more various stock of seeds is needed.


Finally, even if the author can justify that Green Thumb Center is the only source eager buyers can get their vegetable seeds, I remain unconvinced that it needs to enlarge its variety of vegetables seeds so as to earn a better profit. Profitability is a function of both revenue and cost. Thus, it is entirely possible that the cost of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds the center stocks might render it unprofitable despite its popularity. Moreover, there is no evidence that the present stock cannot satisfy the growing trend. If the center has already been over-stocked, it is unwise to further expand its stock of seeds. In short, without more information about supply, demand and production costs, it is impossible to determine whether the center can earn a better profit from enlarging its variety of seeds stock.



In conclusion, the argument for expanding stock of various vegetable seeds based on national survey and magazine sales could provide important information and potentially increase profit. Before conclusions about how wise this expansion could be, however, a more careful analysis should be given on the town residents’ demand for growing their own vegetables and present seeds stock in this center. Moreover, to better assess the argument I would also need to know the content of the magazine and local people’s desire. After all, a false confidence in potential market growth could be as dangerous as no confidence at all.