Argument53 欢迎大家猛拍，谢谢了

chenxi19891024UID: 2718022

ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. Grounding on the study of a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress, and synthesizing the follow-up study of the group of the same participants conducted earlier this year, the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth causes shyness during infancy and later life of people. Close scrutiny of either of these two studies, however, reveals that neither of them lends credible support to the recommendation.

The number of participants, 25, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusion about the relationship between levels of melatonin and distress even shyness, in terms of different genders, ages across the world. Were they selected randomly for the research? Were they statistically representative of the overall infants who showed signs of wild distress? It is entirely possible that infants all come from the same region. If so, the climate, the water or the education they get result the feature they have. Moreover, the following study lacks detailed information, such as the concrete feature of shyness or portion with the term “more than half”. In short, without better evidence that the study is statistically reliable and the detailed information about the following study, the author cannot make the conclusion.

Even the writer could provide more detailed information about the study and all of them are in accord with the study, it is also groundless to assume increased levels of melatonin in the early autumn is the only cause of infants’ distress. If the statement that mothers’ production of melatonin is a kind of hormone known to affect some brain functions is correct, it also cannot explain whether it would affect infants when they are conceived or whether it would make them feel distress. If high levels of melatonin are the factor to result in distress, there could be other alternatives leading to distress of infants. Such alternatives may include that the climate, such as sunlight or temperature, directly influences the characteristics of infants, or that the physical or economic conditions of pregnant attribute to the results. Perhaps pregnant could not get enough high-nutrient food during that time; or perhaps pregnant could not take enough exercise outside for the cold weather, which affect the characteristic of infants. Without considering and ruling out alternative reasons for these possibilities, the author cannot make any sound recommendations.

Although the high levels of melatonin indeed lead to the distress of infants, it does not indicate that this kind of distress would continue to the later life. Sometimes people cannot evaluate oneself objectively; or perhaps those teenagers intentionally hide the secret about characteristics to achieve some certain goals, like gaining some attention from others. For this matter, the statement that the feature of shyness would continue is unconvincing and indefensible. Moreover, although these teenagers can evaluate themselves correctly, the author cannot make the causal relationship between shyness and high levels of melatonin. Perhaps the personal experience could also affect the character, or perhaps shyness is normal around the teenagers. Without considering and ruling out these and other factors, the author cannot justifiably conclude that shyness would continue to the later life.

In sum, the argument relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the argument, the author should provide more statistically reliable study and more detailed information about the children and teenagers. To better assess the argument, I would also need to know the principle of the melatonin.

chenxi19891024UID: 2718022

8月30的AW，欢迎一起组队批改