ARGUMENT39 ,求各位指教，谢谢

uic007UID: 2754906

TOPIC: ARGUMENT39 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
WORDS: 475          TIME: 00:35:00          DATE: 2010/8/17 20:09:57

In this argument,the author concludes that the Humanan university should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni in order to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deifcits .
To support this conclusion,the author points out that last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50% while Omni showed a significant decrease form prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space.And the author reasons that it is owing to the long-distance programs.In addition,the author also cites that enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. The argument is based on some dubious assumptions and therefore unconvincing.
First,the author provide no evidence that the long-distance programs that cause the significant decrease form prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space.It  is entirely possible that some other factors,for example,the tutition in Omni rise significantly,the teaching quality in Omni decrease or students just go for working after high school.Any of these scenarios,if true,would cast considerable doubt on the argument's conclusion that it is because long-distance programs that cause the significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space in Omni.
Secondly,the arguer commits a fallacy of hastry generalization.even if ong-distance programs that cause the significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space in Omni,which is,of course,an unwarranted assumption,it does not follow that there will be an increase enrollment as well as  solvation of problem of budget deficits for Human College.As we know,there are several factors that may influence the enrollment of college.Perhaps students of Omni live far away from school ,as a result ,they perfer a long-distance program,which may be not the case with students of Humana College.
Perhaps students of Humana like to listen classes alive and don not like to have their lessons through the Internet,which is in low efficiency.Without ruling  out these or other possibilities,the argument can not convincing me that the enrollment will increase as a result of promoting long-distance degree programs like those at Omni.
Finally,the author fails to take other factors into consideration.Perhaps the Omni university is good than the Humana College.The increasment is just because the Omni University has a better faculty than Omni's.Or perhaps the Omni u lies in a very cold state that the students just don't want to go there themselves.Therefore,the author can not  conclude that it is because the longdistance that causes the decrease in expenditure in classroom space.
In conclusion,the argument is not persuasive as it stands.To strenghten the argument,the author should provide the evidence that  it is only owing to the long-distance programs that causes an increase enrollment and a decrease in experditures for dormitory and classroom space in Omni.To better evaluate the argument,I would need more information about the students'living places in both colleges and the two colleges' teaching quality.Without ruling out these factors,the argument can not convince me about the conclusion.