Argument45求猛拍，留链必回拍

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题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：417
用时：0:30:00
日期：2010-8-21

In this argument, the arguer draws a conclusion that the direct reason of the decline in arctic deer populations is the recent global warming trends. A careful examination of this argument shows how groundless this conclusion is.

First of all, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. As hunters are enemies for arctic deer, it is not strange that deers would try their best to conceal themselves when they meet a human hunter in order to avoid of being killed. Therefore, maybe the true reason of why hunters see fewer deer than before is the improvment in skills for deer to protect themselves rather than a decline in the population of arctic deer. What's more, it is quite possible that a large number of deer have left Canada and move to other arctic places as there are so many hunters seeking for them everyday in Canada that their original motherland is never suitable for them to survive at all.

To go further, even if the population of arctic deer is actually decreasing, the evidence provided in this argument is not adequate to testify the claim that global warming is supposed to hold all the responsibility. The arguer only tells us that the decline of arctic deer and the trends of global warming occur at the same time, but it is unreasonble to conclude that things tha happen simultaneously undoubtedly have some relations with each other. Of course many places on the earth are becoming hotter in recent year, it is a mission impossible for us to find any information which can prove that Canada's arctic region is suffering from similiar situations.

At last, the subjective intention makes the arguer overlook some potential risks that can lead to great mistakes. Even if the arctic region in Canada is really going warmer, the arguer fails to validate that the warming extent is so serious that sea ice is going to melt. In addition, we can not exclude the possibility that higher temperature kills a portion of plants in that area which used to serve as significant food for arctic deer. If so, it is the decline in food supplyment instead of melt of the sea ice which results in the decreasing in arctic deer populations.

As it stands, this argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer is responsible for providing sufficient evidence details to demonstrate that the population of arctic deers is indeed declining and the melt of the sea ice serves as the only reason which can threaten arctic deer.