第一周-argument提纲-1106柚子作文小組-G-Wesley

lws343343UID: 2529548

Argument:200
Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three timesmore men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggeststhat men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than womenare. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the maleconsumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniquesand the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
建议：那些做广告来吸引患者的牙医应该定位于男性顾客，并同时强调他们的麻醉技术和他们的职员对于紧张和痛苦患者的敏感度
段1：
因果关系——看牙医晕倒的男性比女性多三倍；男性比女性更容易紧张与打广告吸引病人的牙医应该把目标放在男顾客身上不构成因果关系。文中没有提到男女病人人数的比例，无法说明大部分病人为男性。有可能女性病人要比男性病人多的多，如果宣传只强调男性病人不一定能吸引更多的男性病人来，反而有可能使女性病人减少。
段2：
统计数据——看牙医晕的男人比女人多三倍。证据不全面，没有提到统计的范围，参与的诊所，男女病人的比例和男女病人的年龄。可能统计数据来自某个地区不能推广至全国；男病人在某段时间内看病的比女病人多很多，所以晕倒的人也很多；可能男病人多为小孩和老人，比较容易晕倒。
段3：
因果关系——就算看牙医晕的男人比女人多三倍也不能说明这显示男人比女人接受牙治疗时更紧张。可能女性紧张的人数超过男性只是没有晕倒。
Argument:201
The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthierlifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habitsthey conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than theydid ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of foodproducts containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has
shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia,a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat.
论断：F的市民现在采用了更健康的生活方式。
段1：
respondent：没有足够证据显示respondent能够代表大部分的市民，从而使得survey的可信性下降，respondent可能说一套做一套。Moreover，没有证据说明governmentnutritional recommendations是健康的建议。
段2：
论据的问题：销售增加4番的kiran不能说明市民更关心健康的生活方式了。文中忽略了其他几个增加销售的可能。可能是成功的市场营销策略，可能是价格更加便宜，可能是食品特别美味而广受喜欢。
段3：
论据的问题：sulia销售的下降更不能说明市民更关心健康的生活方式了。没有证据说sulia是不健康的食品。可能sulia比kiran更有益健康而含有sulia的食品不怎么好吃。
Argument:202
Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that hadlived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humanscannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is noevidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further,archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had beendiscarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals,so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change orother environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.
论断：天气变化或其他环境因素导致了种类灭绝。因为人不可能是灭绝的一个因素
段1：
不是人造成的灭绝因为证据说明人与之有接触。没有接触也能造成灭绝，破坏食物链，污染等等。
段2：
人没有捕杀哺乳动物。因为没有发现有遗弃骨头的地方。没有发现有遗弃骨头的地方，不证明不猎杀。有可能只带肉回来，或是把骨头做成了装饰品。
段3：（这个段比较牵强，纯粹为了凑3段）
证据缺乏的两个方面不说明以后没有可能找到证据。可能被人忽略，需要更先进的工具和方法。