11-18提纲作业issue 57

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

57The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."


请于23：30之前将提纲跟帖回复

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

author believes that Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.
reasons:a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba.

反驳：这个研究的科学性是在哪里？研究的对象是如何选定的。研究对象的数量是多少？参加研究的人员是只服用了Zorba 这一种药吗？在生活习惯上是否一样，在既往患溃疡的严重程度是否一样。25%未复发可能是服用了其他的药物，可能患病程度较轻，而另外复发的75%是由于既往患病较重，或者未服用治疗药物。而这些可能与Zorba无关。最关键的一点，没有具体的关于Zorba是如何治疗溃疡的科学研究，所以，结论不一定成立。

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

57The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent（再次发生的） ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."

（1）首先，作者没有论述病人是怎样选择的，使得文章缺乏可信度。 样本是否足够大，并且有没有对病人最详细的诊断，两组病人在总体病情上是否存在明显差异？
（2）在治疗进行过程当中，作者没有排除其他的可能引起这种实验情况的可能性。两组病人是否还采取其他的不同的疗法，两个组的医生的水平和经验是否有差异。
（3）基于以上的讨论，Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers是不太可信，值得怀疑的to be worthy of skepticism。并且，many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well 更加没有根据了。side effects, drug abuse  

daniexiaUID: 2403405

By citing the study that first-time patients who took Zorba are less likely to develop new ulcers than that who didn't take Zorba, the author tries to conclude that Zorba is highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and health experts should inform the public of this fact in order to prevent first-time ulcers.
(1) the first-time ulcer patients in the study may not cover all the patients, so the data doesn't convince me that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers
(2) it doesn't exclude other factors that may contribute to the low occurence of the patients who took Zorba.
(3) Zorba's ability of preventing recurrent ulcers is not a sufficient evidence that first-time ulcers can be prevented as well