[风雨与共] 12.20 argument提纲 by【8】

buyingUID: 2733663

14. The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
1.全国性的调查不能代表本地的情况
2.即使一成立，人们未必会因对超市里的蔬菜不满意而去买自己种植蔬菜
3.great green畅销并不能支持论断
A)没有提供杂志的具体情况和人们买这本杂志的目的
B)仅说杂志很快卖完并不能代表杂志畅销可能这本杂志本来就发行量很小
4.扩大种子类别未必带来盈利
A)扩大种子的那些类别未必会畅销
B)成本会增加

15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
1.调查本身有问题
A)人们选择食品的原因有很多，不只是低脂肪和卡路里，还有口味，价格及品牌等问题
B）没有说明调查的有效性和代表性
2.OD公司未必没有健康食品，或今后都不生产健康食品
3.可能OD公司的食品的购买者不属于那80%，他们今后会继续购买OD的食品
4.商店里有很多低脂食品未必与OD的发展构成竞争，没有具体的资料显示这些食品是和OD同种类的
5.即使OD的食品不再很畅销，也未必会亏本以致失去投资价值。决定一个公司是否与投资价值的因素很多，如公司的运营情况，管理人员等。

16The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
1.错误类比。可能有很多不同段的差异导致在lu有用的措施在整个州不管用
2.时间类比错误。两年前的情况未必在现在有用
3.调查问题。仅在州首府的调查不能显示整个州的人都是同一种情况
4.人们每年花在博彩上的钱并不能表示他们一定会去买彩票
5.彩票系统成功与否决定于很多因素