[风雨与共] 12.21 提纲作业 by 【7】

shawn_pysUID: 2770388

Argument

19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.

"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."

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1. 急于概括，两次音乐会在不同地方举行，因此无法判断其在全国的流行程度是否增加
2. 错误的因果关系，乐队在M的流行程度增加并没有证据表示是哪个原因造成的，可能只是是因为做了广告，也有可能只是因为其乐队的受欢迎程度增高
3. 错误类比，在M即使能收到效果，也不能确定在全国一定会得到相同的效果


20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

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1. 错误类比
2. 错误时间类比
3. 模糊数据（similar limits)
4. T只减少了摩托自行车事故，而B准备减少摩托自行车跟行人事故

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

1. 模糊数据
2. 错误时间类比
3. 混淆因果，可能正因为需求下降，其他厂家已经停止了此产品的生产

shawn_pysUID: 2770388

Issue
176. "The function of science is to reassure; the purpose of art is to upset. Therein lies the value of each."

1. 科学的功能不光是使人安心，科学是在不断地探求真理，有时会让人因为了解事物而安心，而有的时候却因发现自己的无知而不安
2. 而艺术的功能也不只是颠覆，艺术表达的是作者的内心世界，或是对世界、对宇宙的思考，当世界趋于满足的时候，艺术就会提醒人类的渺小，而当人们惶恐的时候，艺术会带来安心
3. 科学与艺术是相互补充的，科学探求客观真理，改善人们的生活，艺术探寻来自内心的情感，丰富人们的精神世界


127. "Facts are stubborn things. They cannot be altered by our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions."

1. 事实是固执的，事实的本身并不会因为我们内心的愿望、喜好或是情绪而改变，的确有大量的事实不以人的意志为转移
2. 但实际上，人类感官的感知能力是有限的。我们的视觉、听觉、触觉所提供给我们的世界的面貌只是这个世界极小、极有限的一部分。
2.5 虽然事实是确定的，但是我们常常看不到事情的全貌，而只看到事物的一方面，如果我们能够从多个角度观察事物，就会发现事实已经不是我们之前看到的事实了
3. 人们对世界的感知具有主管的选择性。大家可能更愿意知道自己想知道的、更相信自己愿意相信的事情


73. "In most professions and academic fields, imagination is more important than knowledge."

想象力跟知识同样重要
1. 科研需要想象力
2. 科研需要知识
3. 有时知识会限制人的想象力，并且知识越多限制就越大
4. 这就需要我们能够适时的跳出传统的思维模式，获得新思路