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2Thefollowing appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from theDeerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a setof restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and whatcolors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average propertyvalues have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values inDeerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping andhousepainting."
1.两地域间类比类错误。B与D是两个不同的城市,作者并没有提供可比数据,无法得出B的成功,可以成为D的参照。D的地价上升可能是因为D是个很有发展潜力的工业城市,而B则是农业城市。
2.就算B可以作为参照,这项举措也是7年前的事情。随着时间的推移,诸多因素都会发生变化,以前能起作用,不代表现在依旧可行。
3.就算现在依旧可行,作者也没有明确的证据表明D地价的上涨是因为统一了社区中房屋的外观,可能因为当时旁边正在兴建大型购物中心,或者高速公路等设施,使得地价上涨。
4.另外,作者也没有经过调查,无从得知原有居民是否喜欢统一房屋外观,统一的外观会让大家是去个性,反而会让原有住户搬离。
5.作者需要对社区居民先进性一个民意调查,还有对D的环境进行一个考察,再作结论
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6Thefollowing was written as a part of an application for a small business loan bya group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroewould be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz clubis 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the localmarket all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazzmusicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide studyindicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazzentertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
1.作者声称jazz club—C Note会在M很赚钱的主要原因是目前那里还没有任何jazz club,最近的一个在65英里外。没有不代表开了就会赚钱,或许M没有jazz club的原因是根本没有市场。
2.就算jazz club在M很有市场,要保证一个jazz club能赚钱的原因包括很多方面,如:运营策略、经营者自身的能力、当地消费恩能力等等,作者都没有提到,不能支持其观点。
3.即使以上条件都满足,作者对于M人喜欢jazz的理由很不在充分。去年的jazz festival很受欢迎,不能说明当地人喜欢jazz,可能去参加的大多是外地来的,可能当地人去参加只是为了凑热闹,也可能是因为来了一个明星,人们是冲着明星去的,并不能有效说明M人喜欢爵士。
4.一个证据是M的电台收听率最高的是“Jazz Nightly”,收听率高不代表听众喜欢jazz,可能听众大多是taxi driver,他们听这档节目纯粹是因为放松心情或者舒缓疲劳。即使听众喜欢jazz,不代表他们喜欢去jazz club,或许他们只是喜欢在家里听jazz,有了这档节目反而可能会和C Note抢市场,在家可以听,谁还会去club呢?
5.一个全国性的调查只能说明全国的大环境,对于个别区域不具代表性,或许有些地方特别高,而有些地方特别低,M可能就是低的那一类。
6.就算该调查有说服力,也只是针对典型爵士乐迷来说,没有数据表示M人是典型爵士乐迷。何况上述结论都不成立。
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8Thefollowing appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning departmentat Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets itsproducts within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growthpotential. Mesaenjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-sellingproduct, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past threeyears. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the agegroup that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, andconcentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout thecountry."
1.作者的结论太过武断。文章首先涉及公司合并问题,我们知道合并牵扯到两家公司自身的运营机制,人员结构,企业文化等一系列因素的融合问题,合并失败的案例比比皆是。作者并没有关于合并的相应计划,对于DS畅销全国何从谈起?
2.就算合并可以成功,作者认为MF很有发展潜力的依据是因为MF去年利润增长20%,却没有对于关于其今后的规划和预计增长趋势,不能说明今后MF有很好的发展势头。
3.MF的DS目前只是在该地很畅销,只能说明其符合当地人的口味,对于全国是否畅销,作者没有做相应的一个national survey,论据不充分。
4.就算DS全国畅销,OI的主营方向是14到25岁之间的人群,没有任何数据显示DS受到这类人的欢迎,可能DS只是受小孩或者老人欢迎而已。
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16Thefollowing appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizenof the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery tosupplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spendsmore per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far morepeople than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lotterylike the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educationalsystem and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless besuccessful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes thatcitizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year ongambling."
1.作者认为只要开展抽奖活动I的福利水平就会上升,理由是一项来自首都的调查显示I人每年平均话$ 50 在赌博上。但是这项证据存在很大漏洞,survey是在首都进行的,其在当地的代表性受到质疑,调查工作是如何进行的没有给出。其次赌博和乐透是有区别的,别人会去赌博,不表示会去买乐透。赌博能带来很大的刺激,乐透则没有。
2.另外,作者没对I人对于乐透的参与度进行调查,如何证明在I开展乐透会有人愿意来买?
3.就算I人会来买乐透,能否赚钱也有待研究。作者的参照是两年前L进行了相同的措施,现在I的教育和医疗水平上升了。L和I虽然相邻,但并没有资料显示它们是相似的,在L获得成功,在I就一定会成功么?这关系到两地的文化风俗等习惯,或许L人比I人要有钱,他们有闲钱去买彩票,而I人则只能满足温饱。
4.即使L的措施能直接在I实行,但这项措施也是在两年前进行的,时间推移,诸多事项都发生了变化,如何保证现在还能够流行?没准政府已经出台政策禁止开放乐透,或者由更好的筹资项目。
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21Thefollowing appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, acompany that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliablesupplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxealpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resumeproduction. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered analpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makesan alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since theprice of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years,customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpacaovercoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits willincrease."
1.作者认为resume overcoat一定会赚钱。主要依据是他们已经五年没有做这类衣服了,而且他们的主要竞争对手也没有做同类衣服,所以现在推出一定会满足市场需求。这是毫无根据的。作者没有出具相关数据证明该衣服在5年前很受欢迎,也没有做过现在的市场调查,证明5年后这类衣服依旧受欢迎,可能这类衣服已经被淘汰了。
2.如果衣服有市场,为什么竞争对手不去生产,也很有力证明了该衣服没有市场。
3.就算该类衣服依旧保有市场,现在可以卖出比5年前更高的价格是毫无道理的,有谁会愿意花更多的钱去买一件5年前款式的衣服?或许该类衣服的价格比以前更低。
4.就算顾客愿意花更多的钱去买,也不表示定会盈利。市场变了,价格的上升可能是因为原料价格在上升,可能上升更快,还有雇工费,市场宣传等等一系列费用,作者都没给出预算,没有依据证明这类衣服会赚钱。
5.就算这类衣服能赚钱。该服装厂5年前停产是因为投资方撤资的缘故,现在的投资方能保证他们不撤资么?文中也没有相关证据。没有资金来源,就无法保证维持生产。
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28Thefollowing is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at schoolfor 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on thebreakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or latefor school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducingstudent absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children whoregularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school.Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academicperformance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we shouldprovide breakfasts for all students before each school day."
1.作者认为只要M提供早餐,就可以减少学生迟到数量。这是毫无根据的。作者的证据是一项为期6个月对5到12岁的学生调查,这项调查并没显示对M有针对性。其次,这项调查只调查了100个孩子,却要反映整个的情况,而且改项研究是长周期的,却只进行了6个月,可信度不高
2.就算研究是正确的。但其前提是学生愿意来学校吃早餐,文中没有证据证明孩子都会愿意来学校吃早餐,可能在家里吃好了再来,也可能不吃早餐。所以吃早餐和减少迟到并没有直接的联系
3.作者还提到,吃早餐的孩子表现通常会更好。却没有给出任何科学证明,仅仅是凭自己臆测的,无法作为参考。
4.就算是对的,但迟到的学生表现就不好吗?迟到的学生或许有其他的原因导致,比如:堵车、送病人就诊等,作者也并没有考虑到。
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