argument66 【1106G】gelivable小组 第1次作业

鑫鑫小宁UID: 2795099

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned.  Homes has a typically cold winter and there are 90 days below-average temperatures last year, whose citizen usually used oil as fuel. By representing the prediction of  Waymarsh University and increasing houses, the argument for investing in Consolidated Industries because of the increased demand for heating oil.

However, no evidence shows that residents in Homes still use oil as their major fuel for heating recently. In the letter it said that Homes have traditionally used oil as main fuel, but it is possible that technological advance promotes fuel changing: residents prefer new way for heating which is more convenient and probably cheaper, such as air condition and central heating. The residents become younger in average age is another case. Using oil may be discontentment for young people who loathe traditional objects.

Regardless those assumption, more below-average temperatures days doesn't equal to an increased demand for oil. Last year's 90 colder days perhaps all during summer. Furthermore, no indication informs us whether last year's low temperature accelerate oil demand or not. In addition, the authority and accuracy of climate forecasters at Waymatsh University is unknown, which makes the argument even unpersuasive.

Homes' case is not a particularly frame for the client to determine that investing in Consolidated Industries is appropriate. The business area of Consolidated Industries is not only in northeastern.Therefore, the demand of oil raising in Homes doesn't mean that the total demand will raise. Even it takes place, there is no direct association with the profit of the enterprise. If oil demand decreases in certain areas, the growth of profit is not guaranteed. Moreover, we should consider other business operations besides retail sale of oil, which surely more or less influence the profit.

Overall, the recommend of investment in Consolidated Industries seems logical if giving more information about recent heating fuel in Homes, definite climate forecast and exact relation between Homes' oil demand and the profit of Consolidated Industries. However, final decision limited in the condition of the argument is irrational.

MrTomUID: 2904037

1# 鑫鑫小宁

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned.  Homes has a typically cold winter and there are 90 days below-average temperatures last year, whose citizen (citizens)usually used oil as fuel. By representing the prediction of  Waymarsh University and increasing houses, the argument for investing in Consolidated Industries because of the increased demand for heating oil. However, no evidence shows that residents in Homes still use oil as their major fuel for heating recently. In the letter it said that Homes have traditionally used oil as main fuel, but it is possible that technological advance promotes fuel changing: residents prefer new way for heating which is more convenient and probably cheaper, such as air condition and central heating. The residents become younger in average age is another case. Using oil may be discontentment for young people who loathe traditional objects. (现在是否还在使用油) Regardless (regardless of ?)those assumption, more below-average temperatures days doesn't equal to an increased demand for oil. Last year's 90 colder days perhaps all during summer. Furthermore, no indication informs us whether last year's low temperature accelerate oil demand or not. In addition, the authority and accuracy of climate forecasters at Waymatsh University is unknown, which makes the argument even unpersuasive.(温度降低是否导致用油量增加) Homes' case is not a particularly frame for the client to determine that investing in Consolidated Industries is appropriate. The business area of Consolidated Industries is not only in northeastern.Therefore, the demand of oil raising in Homes doesn't mean that the total demand will raise. Even(if) it takes place, there is no direct association with the profit of the enterprise.(这句话有点问题，谁和谁的关系？) If oil demand decreases in certain areas, the growth of profit is not guaranteed. Moreover, we should consider other business operations besides retail sale of oil, which surely more or less influence the profit. (选该公司是否合理，利润是否增加) Overall, the recommend (不要 of 吧) investment in Consolidated Industries seems logical if giving more information about recent heating fuel in Homes, definite climate forecast and exact relation between Homes' oil demand and the profit of Consolidated Industries. However, final decision limited in the condition of the argument is irrational.(总结) 基本上主要的逻辑错误都找到了，并且都进行了分析。 (我的水平有限，特别是语法。。。修改的建议仅供参考) 修改人：MrTom(UUCT)