argument66 【1106G】gelivable小组 第1次作业

MrTomUID: 2904037

证据A：traditionally useoil for heating
证据B:   last year 90 days with below-average temperatures
证据C:    predict weather pattern will continue for several more years
证据D:    new homes built in the region
结论E:  predict increase oil demand
结论F： investment inConsolidated Industries
隐含条件G：选那个公司合理。
逻辑链：A+B+C+D -> E           E+G -> F




××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××
In the letter, the advisor provides a suggestion that the client should invest to Consolidated Industries. He gave this advise based on several factsand predictions. It seems that the demand for heating oil will increase.However, the advise still needs more details and much evidence to make itcogent.


To begin with, the advisor believes people will need more heating oil in the coming years but the evidence he provided are not sufficiently supporting his prediction. He mentioned the people in the northeastern of United States traditionally use oil as major fuel for heating. But compare to oil , electricity is widely used now and famous for its cheap ,convenient and environmental-friendly.So instead of bearing the pollution, high-price and inconvenience of using oil ,the people in that region are more possibly choosing electricity for heating.Especially those new-built homes, their owners are even more likely to choose new technologies and facilities. The reliability of the suggestion is weaken without clearing the question whether the people are still using oil or what is the percentage of people who are using oil.


Moreover, even if the residents are using oil now, the correlation between temperature decreasing and increasing oil demand is not fully proved.The advisor asserts that there were below-average temperatures lasted 90 days last year but he failed to offer the exactly date or period. So the drop instead of happening during winter, it is entirely possible during summer, or spring,or autumn. Thus people would not need to use heating instruments and there would be no demand for oil at all. Even if we accept the drop was during winter,the prediction of continuing weather pattern is not absolutely right. The temperature in the next few years may maintain the same or even rise due to global warming.All these possibilities should be taken into consideration throughly before the advisor could offer a reasonable suggestion.


Finally, even if what in the prediction would come true and the demand for oil will increase indeed, nobody can guarantee that the investment is worthy because the advisor didn't provide any supports for choosing Consolidated Industries. Since we are not sure about the condition of that company, whether it is growing rapidly and being competitive in its field or closing to bank-corrupted,it could be risky for the client to hand in his/her funds.


To sum up, the advisor should provide more specific information of the heating fuel, careful estimation of the probable consequences brought by the temperature dropping and reasonable consideration of choosing Consolidated Industries before he can offer a convincing suggestion.

鑫鑫小宁UID: 2795099

In the letter, the advisor provides a suggestion that the client should invest to Consolidated Industries. He gave this advise based on several factsand predictions. It seems that the demand for heating oil will increase.However, the advise still needs more details and much evidence to make itcogent.(it cogent)


To begin with, the advisor believes people will need more heating oil in the coming years but the evidence he provided are not sufficiently supporting his prediction. He mentioned the people in the northeastern of United States traditionally use oil as major fuel for heating. But compare to oil , electricity is widely used now and famous for its cheap ,convenient and environmental-friendly.So instead of bearing the pollution, high-price and inconvenience of using oil ,the people in that region are more possibly choosing electricity for heating.Especially those new-built homes, their owners are even more likely to choose new technologies and facilities. The reliability of the suggestion is weaken without clearing the question whether the people are still using oil or what is the percentage of people who are using oil.
(我认为应该从当地人对于传统得看法改变来入手。如果不论证当地人改变传统得可能性，论证有什么其他的代替品是没有意义的。传统这种东西，不是说有新的或者更好得东西，我就要去改变他了。比如说我喜欢吃面条，肉是更好，或者吃蔬菜更加便宜，但我并不一定会去吃他们，因为吃面条习惯了。比如可以说当地年轻人变多了，年轻人比较喜欢接受新事物。)


Moreover, even if the residents are using oil now, the correlation between temperature decreasing and increasing oil demand is not fully proved.The advisor asserts that there were below-average temperatures lasted 90 days last year but he failed to offer the exactly date or period. So the drop instead of happening during winter, it is entirely possible during summer, or spring,or autumn. Thus people would not need to use heating instruments and there would be no demand for oil at all. Even if we accept the drop was during winter,the prediction of continuing weather pattern is not absolutely right. The temperature in the next few years may maintain the same or even rise due to global warming.All these possibilities should be taken into consideration throughly before the advisor could offer a reasonable suggestion.


Finally, even if what in the prediction would come true and the demand for oil will increase indeed, nobody can guarantee that the investment is worthy because the advisor didn't provide any supports for choosing Consolidated Industries. Since we are not sure about the condition of that company, whether it is growing rapidly and being competitive in its field or closing to bank-corrupted,it could be risky for the client to hand in his/her funds.
（有其他选择也是一种观点，但我感觉比较扣题的分析是分析即使上升的燃油需求和CI公司的收益是没有必然联系的。首先CI公司的业务范围不只是燃油零售，而且燃油零售也不仅在东北｛貌似是东北地区，忘了。。。｝）

To sum up, the advisor should provide more specific information of the heating fuel, careful estimation of the probable consequences brought by the temperature dropping and reasonable consideration of choosing Consolidated Industries before he can offer a convincing suggestion.

点评：实在没什么说的感觉。。。写的应该还可以，寻找的谬误和议论本身也都没有太大的问题。唯一感觉有一点问题的就是第二段了。