argument66 【1106G】gelivable小组 第1次作业

tutuhedouUID: 2971121

Giving some facts and some analyses, the arguer alleges that there exists a increase in the needs of heating oil, so it is wise to invest Consolidated Industries whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. Although it seems reasonable on the surface, further analysis can showed some hidden logical problems and actually, more factors should be considered before the investment.

To begin with, the assumption that the demand of heating oil will rise doesn’t base on the former situations of previous years. The conclusion from the letter of investing heating oil related companies are based on the increasing demand of home heating oil, but the arguer didn’t give definite and detailed figures to support the viewpoint that the cold weather are sure to stimulate the use of heating oil. Commonly, the comparison should directly accord to the previous years. That means, the author have to tell us whether last year, homes located in where winters are typically cold created an increase in the use of heating oil. Besides, as referred in the letter, heating oil is a traditional way to use in the winter. However, no one can draw the conclusion that no other new effective ways have introduced to be used as fuel for heating. Without taking these factors into consideration, there are no proper reasons to allege an increasing demand of heating oil.

Next, even though the point that cold weather is certain to bring about the heightened demand of heating oil is as the truth, whether the temperature of this year in the northeastern united states in winter is hard to say. To give the opinion, the author quoted the prediction from Waymarsh University that this kind of cold weather pattern would continue for several years, which hinted that this year would still be cold in this area. Since it is a prediction, it may include some uncertainty and force majeur. Otherwise, whether the prediction maker is well qualified is unknown. So the credibility of the prediction is doubtful and it can not be a reasonable evidence.

Additionally, if the cold weather comes as predicted , the demand of heating oil is increasing, and the newly built houses still use the heating oil, it seems that the companies whose major business is the retail sale of home heating oil will gain a great profit from that area. But as common knowledge, companies taking home heating oil as major business are not rare. Consolidated Industries is truly one of them, but no evidence can prove that it is the best choice. Without detailed data and introduction of the company, investors may well doubt that the relation between the author and the company is not that easy. If the competition in the retail sale of home heating oil is fierce and unsteady, no company can convince their success in this field.

In sum, the author of the letter lack in sufficient evidence and reliable analysis to persuade the client to give the support after the above discussion. To make a wise investment, more factors should be taken into consideration.