Argument 150 提纲

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Argument 60/145/146/150/154/155
Arg 150 invest Consolidated Industries-o

60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

145) The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.

Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

146) The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.

Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

150) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

154) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

155) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.




G1: Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.

G2: Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.

G3: Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year.

C1: Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil,

C2: we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries,

G4: one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.


A1 (G2): The forecast about the weather pattern was reliable and the the weather last year was colder than earlier years.

A2 (G3): New homes will be bought and occupied over the winter.

A3 (C1): Other sources of heating would not become relatively cheap and compete with heating oil.

A4 (G4, C2): CI's retail sale would become more profitable as a result of the increasing demand and the company stock is worth buying (not overpriced).


question 1: how reliable are the weather prediction
- maybe the model is flawed overlooking some latest data
- how about predictions made by other researchers

question 2: will the residents switch to other energy sources for heating or adopt other solutions?
- maybe they would use electricity
- maybe they would install more insulation to conserve heat
- some people may travel to the south to spend the winter (especially the elderly)
all would reduce the demand for heating oil

question 3: will the new homes be occupied using heating oil
- maybe the homes will remain vacant (poor housing market)
- the homes use electricity
- the homes are better insulated (need less oil)

question 4: retail of heating oil is necessarily profitable and the company is worth investing
- maybe the cost of heating oil will also increase eating away the profits
- maybe the increase in labor and operating cost will reduce the profits
- perhaps the company is poorly managed and financially troubled





Argument范文与提纲目录(tesolchina)
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