ARGU提纲2.1

cousonUID: 2389644

ARGU提纲2.1 150,20,162,164,11,76,35,195,25,166,

150 Yosemite两栖动物数量下降的原因
The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."
全球两栖动物数量的下降清楚地说明全球空气和水质的污染。在加州Yosemite国家公园对于两栖动物所进行的两次研究证实了我的结论。1915年公园中有7中两栖动物，每种的数量都很丰富。然而到了1992年在公园中只观察到4种两栖动物，并且每种动物的数量都显著下降。Yosemite公园两栖动物数量的下降曾被归因于始于1920年的在公园水域引入鲑鱼的行为（我们知道鲑鱼捕食两栖动物的卵）。但鲑鱼的引入不会是Yosemite两栖动物数量下降的真正原因应为它并不能解释全球范围的数量下降。
逻辑链
World amp -- 说明 wa的全球污染
Two study: 1915(7种), 1920(4种, 且少)
Cause: 1920(trout) not true true cause
提纲
1．Y公园amph减少如果如果和鲑鱼没有关系, 那也不一定是污染造成的,其他天敌鸟类等
2．全球减少,也不一定WA污染, 不能非此即彼(不是trout就是WA污染了), 可能是多样原因,有些地方是trout,有些地方是WA污染,有些是其他原因
3．全球范围的减少没有证据证实(没有根据的假设)

20人力车和行人的事故问题
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。
逻辑链
Pop->10W
为了减少MP accidents
6个rent数量(50-30)
Sure 50%- 因为 T这么做了
提纲
1．6家租赁公司的租赁量从50减到30不一定有减少街上租赁的mopod, 夏季还可能新开mopod租赁店
2．租赁数减少不一定街上mopod的数量就答复减少, 绝大部分热自己有用mopod
3．T成功不一定我们成功, 我们事故原因不是mopod太多,而是其他人车混行,车速过快,道路涉及不合理, T也许还才需其他的措施,专门的mopod道, 这些才是起作用的关键

162大豆可以防止抑郁和疲劳
A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease–preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.
最近一次研究显示居住在北美大陆的人患慢性疲劳和慢性抑郁症的数量分别为居住在亚洲大陆居民的9倍和31倍。有趣的是，亚洲人平均每天食用20克大豆，而北美人几乎不吃。人们发现大豆含有一种具有抗病功效的植物化合物单黄酮。因此，北美人应该考虑经常食用大豆作为预防疲劳和抑郁的方法。
逻辑链
NA(9倍CF, 31倍CD)于A
A平均每天20g soy, NA没有
soy(iso可防病)
C: NA应该每天吃SOY
提纲
1. Iso能防病,但是不一定防CF,CD
2. NA没有吃soy, 不代表NA不摄入iso, 可能NA吃别的事物也含有iso
3. CF,CD的产生与消失,和不摄入与摄入没有必然主要的关系, NA和A生活方式也不一样, A的CF,CD也在升高

164 Claitown大学的新学生宿舍
Claitown University needs both affordable housing for its students and a way to fund the building of such housing. The best solution to this problem is to commission a famous architect known for experimental and futuristic buildings. It is common knowledge that tourists are willing to pay money to tour some of the architect's buildings, so it can be expected that tourists will want to visit this new building. The income from the fees charged to tourists will soon cover the building costs. Furthermore, such a building will attract new students as well as donations from alumni. And even though such a building will be much larger than our current need for student housing, part of the building can be used as office space.
Claitown大学需要为学生提供负担得起的住房和建造这些住房的融资途径。对于这一问题的最好解决办法就是请一位知名建筑师来设计一幢试验性和未来式的建筑。众所周知游客愿意花钱参观这名建筑师的一些建筑，因此我们可以预测游客将想要参观这座新建筑。从游客那里收取的钱将很快收回建楼的成本。而且，这样一座建筑将会吸引校友的捐款和新学生。尽管这样的建筑将比我们当前学生住房所需的大很多，但它的一部分可以用作办公空间。
逻辑链
为解决housing -> build exp&fut 楼
Tour fee -> soon cover cost
Attract alum donation
可做他用
提纲
1.是否有必要建新楼?
a)不够住的学生不多,不然就不会计划新楼一部分当办公室
b)可以让学生住校外,学校适当补贴
c)改造学校内一些空余的楼(办公室, 教学楼)
d)未来学生的增长也没说, 也许不多
2.有没有必要建exp&fut楼
a)花费贵,学校建
b)旅客不一定会愿意参观学生起居的地方,学生也会返回隐私的地方被人餐馆
c)没有证据说明校友会为此捐款

11垃圾场的延长使用问题
he following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全充满。然而在过去两年间，市民对于铝和纸张的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的收费在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90％的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居民对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。
逻辑链
顾问预言WE五年用完(错了),
L2Y 铝,纸recycle翻倍
收集费用*2, recycle再+
90% response more recycle
提纲
1．L2Y铝,纸recycle翻倍不代表recycle翻倍
a)铝,纸的消耗量很小, 其他的像塑料消耗很大,但是却没有recycle
2.   收集费用增加不一定刺激recycle增加
a)可recycle的东西占garbage的量就很低,而且其他都是生活垃圾, 居民没有办法自行recycle
3．Survey不准确
a)样本情况没说,
b)问题不客观, response者不好意思不说自己没有recycle
4．作者认为顾问忽略了recycle的情况
a)Recycle不是WE寿命主要因素, 人口持续的增加才是

76 Luxess面霜
The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."
一组志愿者参加了一项关于消费者对新的Luxess面霜的反应的调查。在一个月中的每个早晨，他们都用柔和香皂洗脸然后使用Luxess。一个月之后，多数志愿者报告说他们皮肤的观感显著改善。因此，这说明Luxess对于改善面部皮肤状况确实有效。
逻辑链
In one Month,早晨, 先soap再lux , report变好
提纲
1.样本问题
a)本来皮肤非常差, 什么用品都不用, 随便用点什么护肤产品都有效
b)这些样品的皮肤刚好属于某种类型(干性), 对这个lux有效, 但是其他类型不行(油性)
2.时间和环境问题
a)这一个月刚好气候温和, 始于养皮肤
b)居住社区环境也变好了
3.其他因素问题
a)样品这个月作息,饮食刚好也变了
b)实验者回复比率和回答的真实度也难以保证

35水杨酸酯对治疗头痛的作用
The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
"Salicylates(水脂杨酸) are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。
逻辑链
Sal 和 asp是同类chemical
sal商业防腐剂用->20年研究头痛下降
sal可作使用香料->M居民头痛继续下降
提纲
1.作者片面地认为sal也有治疗头痛的作用
a)不一定同一族的化合物就有相同的化学作用,
2.时间上巧合, 被作者认为是有关联
a)既然没有证明sal和头痛的联系, sal商用防腐剂和20年研究表明头痛下降没有必然联系
b)研究本身不可信, 样本信息, 研究内容, 样本等等都没有提供
3.建议可能有不了后果
a)厌恶头疼的治疗
b)Cook之后的sal会不会有副作用?

195作家选择之大小城市
he following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the company's president.
"In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved."
近年来，Liber很不幸地偏离了其原始使命：出版地区性小城镇作家的作品而不是那些大城市作家的作品。就在去年，我们出版的小说中有90％都是由那些在大城市拥有一处住所的作家写的。尽管这一改变的目的一定是为了增加利润，但它显然事与愿违，因为Liber现在正处于严重的财政问题之中。解决这一问题的唯一途径就是回到我们的原始使命。如果我们回复到只出版地区性小城镇作家的作品，我们的财政问题将很快得到解决。
出版内容和财政的关系
逻辑线
(背)lib原使命:出版ST, 不是BC
90%小说 (一处住所作家)
我们现在仍亏损
提纲
1.在城市有处所不能说明就是BC作家
a)临时住的, 但是平时生活, 写作内容都是关于ST
2.小说占了出版量的小部分, 不能说明我们都是出版BC作家
3.亏损的原因不在出版那种类型作家的作品
a)网路,新型媒体的冲击

cousonUID: 2389644

25高尔夫球度假旅馆
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course(市政高尔夫球场) and resort hotel(度假村酒店). During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改善Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
逻辑链
2YA, OV建了一个golf一个hotel
P2Y, OV的旅游增加了,商业也增加了OV税收增+30%
C 我们也应该建,为了改善经济和增加税收
提纲
1．旅游和商业的增加不一定是因为golf和hotel
a)旅游有可能是去国家公园的开放,其他自然景观
b)商业有可能是其他,贸易,金融等提升了
2．Tax增加不一定是因为旅游和商业
a)同道理,旅游和商业的税收水平如何?
b)增加量旅游和商业的税收占比多少?
3.   错误类比(我们不一定适合将golf和hotel)
a)我们是工业农业发展的地区,没有自然风光
结尾:改善经济还需要综合考虑

166 Coldex和Cold-Away之间的药品选择
The following appeared in a local newspaper.
"People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective."
人们不应该被任何人不用医生处方就可以买到的OTC药品Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导。每个牌子都指责另一种药会导致某种众所周知的不良副作用：Coldex导致血压升高而Cold-Away导致嗜睡。但对于多数关心健康的人来说选择是明显的：Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长而且被更多的医院所使用。显然，Cold-Away效果更好。
逻辑链
广告: 总是指责对方的不良副作用, ex高血压, away嗜睡
对关注健康的人, 应选away, 上市时间长,更多医院用
提纲
选一种普通非处方要怎么选
1.        Away不一定比ex效果好
a)        Ex是新药,有新技术
b)        Away原本占了不少市场,或者药厂和医院有合作
2.        作者认这些药品的副作用都不必考虑,
a)        只是对方公司的攻击
b)        但是明显地高血压就不应该选ex
3.        除了这两种药,还有别的选择
a)        不能非此即彼
b)        感冒也许不用药也能好