ARGU53

civilppUID: 2999177

Argu53
20:34-21:37
The author argues that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. To support this argument, the author points out that a survey conducted 13 years ago shows it is in early autumn when melatonin of mother increased cause the shyness. The author also points out that more than half of these teenagers identified themselves as shy recently. As it stands, the argument suffers from several flaws as follow
To start with, the author unfairly assumes that the melatonin before birth increased in the early autumn was contributable to shyness of infant. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that it was other factors that contributed to the shyness of babies such as cold weather, less sunshine, or mother influence. Or perhaps melatonin just have influence on mother, not children in the early autumn. For that matter, perhaps the author should provide other condition analysis to draw a better conclusion. Without considering and ruling out other possible reasons why the infants born in the early autumn are more likely to be shy, the author cannot convince me of the shyness of infant is due to melatonin.
Second, a threshold problem involves the reliability of the survey. It is entirely possible that respondents would not truly understand what the real shy is. What’s more, we are not informed what kind of character the “shy” is. Lacking evidence that the respondents’ report were both truthful and meaningful, the speaker cannot draw any conclusion that the shyness will last in the teenagers’ later life from them.
Third, even though the respondents are truly understand what is shy and identified themselves as shy, only based on the fact that during 13years the respondents remained shy does not necessarily indicate that the shyness will last in the foreseeable future. The speaker overlooks the possibility that the teenagers in the survey may turn gregarious and not shy at all in the future. Without ruling out alternative conditions for this matter, the argument’s conclusion that the shyness caused by melatonin will last in later years is indefensible.
Forth,
Forth, the speaker draws the conclusion that the shyness continues into the teenagers’ later years based on the fact that the infants were shy thirteen years ago. However, this is not necessarily the case, for the speaker unfairly equates distress with shyness. Without a clear definition of shyness, I cannot be convinced that it is the shyness that has lasted for thirteen years.
In summary, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make more convincing, the speaker would provide evidence of the relationship between melatonin and shyness of infants and of whether the respondents know what the really shy means. To better assess the argument, we would need more evidence of the lasting effect of melatonin and difference of distress and shyness.