ARGU提纲2.6

cousonUID: 2389644

ARGU提纲2.6
232,173,201,210,26,55,18,236,17,67

232.独特歌曲的广告
The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song."
很多受欢迎的广播和电视广告都使用易于记忆的音乐和歌曲来吸引人们对于广告商品的注意。确实，最近一次对于高中学生的研究发现85％的人能够轻易地识别畅销软饮料和快餐厅广告所用的音乐。尽管我们公司去年在杂志上做了大量广告，我们家居用品的销量还是下降了。因此，为增加公司利润，我们现在应该改为使用独特歌曲的广告。
--------逻辑线--------
Many adv用歌曲吸引attention,
Recent study: 85%高中生记住SD和FF广告歌
HA产品在杂志上做了广告,但sales还是下降
所以要换广告歌
--------提纲--------
1.广告不一定能吸引人对产品或者服务的关注
     a)广告歌最然让人容易记住但是,人们可能只记住歌,没有记住产品和服务
     b)调查不一定可信,85%?回复比例是多少
2.更换广告策略不一定能够提升我们的销售
     a)我们销售下降不一定是杂志广告策略造成的
     b)HA产品不一定适合使用广告歌的形式宣传
     c)就算广告歌能吸引, 也许只能吸引高中生,其他人群不一定, 而高中生不是HA用品的潜在用户
3.提升了销售不一定能够提升我们利润
     a)产品过时, 质量不好
     b)管理没有效率,成本太高

173.杂志封面的问题
The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
"Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers."
过去三年中我们销量最低的几期杂志是在封面上刊登了国际新闻故事的那几期。在同一时期，与我们竞争的几种新闻刊物显著减少了刊登在封面上的国际新闻数量。而且，我们用于维持国外部报导国际新闻的费用正在增加。因此，我们应该减少对于国际新闻的强调并且避免把这类消息刊登在杂志封面上。
--------逻辑线--------
L3Y, sale最少(inter news, cover), 竞争对手减少(inter news)
Cost(inter news)增加
减少(inter news, cover)
--------提纲--------
1.不一定是国际新闻导致那几期杂志销售降低
     a)其他内容不吸引人,
     b)印刷不好
     c)就算导致了,不一定是内容, 可能是形式上,排版不好
2.我们不应该学对手一样减少国际新闻
     a)对手可能是因为负担不起,
     b)我们在国际新闻的业务还是盈利
     c)对手的退出正是我们的机会
3.保持国外报道意义
     a)建造一个完整报道体系,
     b)体现了我们的能力

201.Forsythe的居民的健康生活方式
The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat.
Forsythe的居民选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项调查的回答显示，他们的饮食习惯比十年前更加贴近政府的营养建议。而且，含有kiran的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现kiran是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被sulia的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居民极少经常食用的食品。
--------逻辑链--------
Survey: 现在diet比10YA要健康, close to政府建议
K食物销量*4，K可以id降低胆固醇,
同时S下降, 是健康居民不吃的
--------提纲--------
1.居民不一定是按照政府建议去饮食
     a)Survey不一定可信
     b)居民买K食物,但是不一定作食用, 食用这么多K会不会有其他不良反应
     c)少健康人吃S不代表S不健康
2.政府的建议也不一定就是健康
     a)建议具体内容?
     b)政府建议在这十年可能也在变
3.其他方面来衡量居民健康
     a)锻炼, 形体健康
     b)阅读, 心灵健康

210.机器人与人类
The following is a letter to the editor of a news magazine.
"Clearly, the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the past 20 years demonstrates that robots could be increasingly used to perform factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory workers. The use of robots in factories would offer several advantages. First, robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced. Second, robots do not make mistakes, so factories would increase their output. Finally, the use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of tasks."
显然，过去20年中机器人在探索外层空间任务中的成功使用证明，机器人可以比人类工作人员更有效、更有益地用于进行很多工作。工厂中机器人的使用将带来若干好处。首先，机器人从不生病，从而旷工将会减少。其次，机器人不会出错，因此工厂产量将会增加。最后，使用机器人同样也会提高工厂工人的精神状态，因为工厂工作有时如此枯燥以至于很多工人将会乐于转换到更有趣的任务。
--------逻辑线---------
L20Y, R在外太空success, R比人更高效,更有益
R在工厂用, 好处: R不生病,不出错,减少人员->有趣的任务
--------提纲--------
1.在外太空的成功不一定在工厂也能成功
     a)R不一定能完成工厂现有工作
2.R不一定比人好
     a)没有创造力
     b)还是会出错, 修理的费用也很大
3.其他后果
     a)引进R的费用没有考虑
     b)引进R的影响worker裁员,有新增有趣岗位吗?

26.是否应该聘用Charles Schade作为新的音乐总管
The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
过去五年中，Charles Schade担任了Steel City高中的音乐教学主任，在那期间学校乐队在三次地区乐队比赛中获胜。而且，Steel City高中的音乐排练设备和乐器在过去五年中明显得到改善。由于Steel City高中所获得的这些成功，Saluda学校委员会应该雇佣Mr.Schade来为整个Saluda学校系统规划和指导总体音乐教育计划。
逻辑链
L5Y, SC high win 3 comps (regional) with Mr. CS,
L5Y SC high MRF, MI 改善
C SS should hire Mr. CS
提纲
1．SC high乐队的成功和Mr. CS没有因果关系,只是同时发生
     a)当地比赛水平不高
     b)天才学生出现
2．SC high硬件的改善和Mr. CS没有因果关系,只是同时发生
     a)School board的推动, 有足够经费
     b)来自本地其他关于学生乐队人士的主动捐助
3．错误类比
     a)地区水平,生源素质
     b)财政情况,社会环境

55.Blue Highway的交通问题
The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper.
"Commuters are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do."
乘客抱怨说Shady Village和Bright City之间的Blue Highway高峰时期的交通拥堵使他们在路上所花的时间多了一倍。一些乘客曾要求修建一条附加机动车道，但最近在附近的Green Highway所修建的类似车道显然吸引了更多的车辆，这可以从去年冬天那里的高峰时段交通拥堵增加的事实判断出来。为减少Blue Highway高峰时段的交通拥堵，应该修建一条自行车道而不是机动车道。这一措施将会取得成功因为Shady Village的很多市民是积极的自行车爱好者；最近在那里举行的问卷调查中有75％的回应者说他们愿意用比当前更多的时间骑车。
--------逻辑线--------
乘客: SV和BC之间的Blue Highway高峰塞车,time*2, 应+车道
Green Highway, +车道 +更多车(Lwinter,高峰塞车)
BH应+自行车道, 因为SV很多自行车因为survey:75%response 他们将更多汽车
--------提纲--------
1.GH的塞车不是因为+车道引起的
     a)去年冬天的塞车是其他原因, 开博览会等,导致车多
2.GH发生的问题不一定会在BH上发生
     a)BH的车数量比较固定,
     b)GD主干道, 去很多地方都可以借道, BH不是
3.+单车道的副作用
     a)已经有单车道了,没有人骑
     b)有多少人愿意骑车来往SV和BC上班,太远了,
     c)Study不一定有效,

18.高速公路的限速问题之安全
The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该回复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改善计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。
--------逻辑链--------
PC主要道路上55->44,但应该恢复
很多司机超速, 事故率仅微量下降
学BC: 5YA,+车道,修复路面,保持55,事故率下降25%
--------提纲--------
1.政策一定是无效的
     a)主要道路事故率可能下降
     b)超时不代表政策无效,
     c)其他因素导致事故率没有下降
     d)政策生效需要时间
2.BC事故率不一定低
     a)还有没有上报的事故
3.BC的情况不一定会出现在PC
     a)PC有没有必要+车道, 修路面

cousonUID: 2389644

236.是否应该取消音乐课程
The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local Solano newspaper.
"The Solano school district should do away with its music education programs. After all, music programs are not especially popular in our schools: Only 20 percent of our high school students participated in music programs last year. Furthermore, very few of the Solano district's college-bound students are interested in majoring in music at the university level. Also, when the school district of our neighboring town of Rutherford eliminated its music programs two years ago, the overall grade point average in the high school increased by 10 percent the next year. Surely the money spent on Solano music programs could be better used to improve the quality of traditional academic courses."
Solano校区应该取消其音乐课程。无论如何，音乐课程在我们学校并不特别受欢迎：去年我们高中的学生只有20％参加了音乐课。而且，Solano区要考大学的学生中只有很少的人想在大学学习音乐。并且当我们的邻镇Rutherford两年前取消了音乐课的时候，其高中的综合成绩在随后一年中上升了10％。显然我们用于Solano音乐课程的开支可以更好地被用于提高传统课程的质量。
--------逻辑链--------
LY, H学生20%参加音乐课(不受欢迎)
考大学很少人报音乐
2YA,R学校取消了音乐课,H综合成绩+10%,
S学校应减少音乐, 增加其他课
--------提纲--------
1.        S地区音乐课不一定是受欢迎
         a)        20%不一定少,说不定其他program的更少
         b)        少人大学报音乐不能说明我们就有必要完全取消音乐课, 不上大学的学生的情况呢?
2.        取消音乐也不一定能够提升传统课程
         a)        R成绩的提升不一定是音乐可的取消
         b)        R和S学校不能比
         c)        从音乐课节省的开支不一定能够支持传统课程
3.        建议的可能性
         a)        目前S传统课程的教学质量很高
         b)        有用的课程的标准不应该是对提高综合成绩

17.垃圾收集公司的选择
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ — which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks — has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
Walnut Grove的市委提议选择ABC Waste，而不是EZ Disposal（它是过去十年中和Walnut Grove签约提供垃圾收集服务的机构），因为EZ最近把他们每月的收费从$2000提高到了$2500，而ABC仍然是$2000。但市委是错误的，我们应该继续使用EZ。EZ每周收集两次垃圾，而ABC只收集一次。而且，EZ当前的卡车拥有量和ABC一样都是20辆，但它已定购了更多的车辆。最后，EZ还提供优越的服务：去年市镇调查中80％的回应者同意他们对于EZ的表现是"满意"的。
-------逻辑链-------
town council: EZ  ABC (暗示,原因council是贪便宜2000<2500)
EZ 2次/week ABC 1次/week
EZ, ABC 20 trucks now, but EZmore
survey: 80% res 满意 EZ in LY                                
C 应该继续用EZ
-------提纲-------
1.        EZ 收集更勤, 更快不一定是我们需要
         a)        居民产生垃圾少
         b)        地域小,20辆车就足够了
2.        EZ的服务不一定好,
         a)        调查的可靠性, 样本,开展时间,选项
         b)        今年开始变差了,
3.        假设了Town counsil是为了贪便宜选择的ABC
         a)        没有证据I.E.
         b)        Town council 可能认为EZ不值得多那500块钱

67.Castorville和Polluxton的图书馆合并
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newspaper serving the villages of Castorville and Polluxton.
"Both the villages of Castorville and Polluxton have experienced sharp declines in the numbers of residents who pay property taxes. To save money and improve service, the two villages recently merged their once separate garbage collection departments into a single department located in Castorville, and the new department has reported few complaints about its service. Last year the library in Polluxton had 20 percent fewer users than during the previous year. It follows that we should now further economize and improve service, as we did with garbage collection, by closing the library in Polluxton and using the library in Castorville to serve both villages."
Castorville和Polluxton两个村镇都经历了地产税纳税居民数量的下降。为节省开支并提高服务质量，两个村镇最近合并了它们一度独立的垃圾收集部门，成立了座落于Castorville的单一部门，新部门所上报的关于其服务的投诉很少。去年Polluxton的图书馆使用者比前一年减少20％。这表明我们现在应该象我们在垃圾收集方面所作的一样进一步经济化和提高服务，通过关闭Polluxton的图书馆和使用Castorville的图书馆来为两个村镇提供服务。
--------逻辑链--------
C,P交PT税的居民减少
C,P垃圾场合并(C), 合并后complaints少
P图书馆人-20%,
应关P图书馆, C服务全部
--------提纲--------
1.        交PT税的居民减少不代表, 总人口减少, 总税收减少
2.        垃圾场合并(C)后complaints少, 不代表居民满意
3.        垃圾场和图书馆的情况不能比
         a)        P图书馆人-20%, 不一定是持续的,
         b)        没有证据说明图书馆合并后服务会提升
         c)        C图书馆不一定能对P,C的居民服务