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发表于 2011-2-12 20:52:43
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本帖最后由 wd_wangda 于 2011-2-12 22:52 编辑
argument 1
1.
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
In the argument, the memorandum draws a conclusion that the company would be profitable to build the next new store in Plainsville. And then, the memo states an assumption and cites a resent survey to support the conclusion. At fist glance, the memo appears to be somewhat convincing, but further analysis reveals that the assumption is not reliable and the evidences are suspicious. Therefore, the argument is open to doubt.
First of all, the memo assumes that the store would be profitable if it build in Plainsville, because Plainsville has many residents who are highly concern with leading healthy lives. In my point of view, residents who concern with health is not necessary for the store can be profitable, because apart from buying NW’s products, people have other methods to concern with their health. Perhaps most people who live in P prefer walking after dinner or climbing outside at weekends rather than buying NW’s products. As a result, it is more likely that it will not be profitable, if NW decides to build a new store in P.
Even if it is a fact that the store would be profitable to build in the area where residents are highly care a healthy life, another controversy arises. Do the local residences or some tourists who buy the running apparels? What are the uses people buy the shoes and cloths? Perhaps people buy those only because these running clothing is comfortable. Possibly, the local basketball team is popular, and most residences are fans of the team, and thus they buy the exercise clothing only for the favor of the basketball team.But factly do the residences exercise little. Followingly, there are not sufficient evidences to support that people lives in P like to exercise.
In addition, the argument also fails to supply sufficient evidences to support that the schoolchildren in P is a new generation of customers. Although they are required to take part in the program that highly stressed the benefit of exercise, it not means the children are willing to do these boring exercises. Even though the children like to exercise themselves, no evidence indicate that they will buy NW’s products after grown up. For example, perhaps most of these children are used to exercise rather than buy NW’s products to care their health. Furthermore, we do not know the condition after the children earns their own money. Thus, the argument is unwarranted without ruling such possibilities.
Overall, the decision that to build a new store in P is somewhat convincing, but lack more powerful evidences. So, before coming into the conclusion, a more all-around and accurate report should be present. what is more, the author should address all the aspects discussed above, and draw a conclusion logically supported. |
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