Argument 66 ,求大侠们帮帮忙给点评一下并且估计个分数，小弟在此万分感谢

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66. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."


   This letter suggests moneyman invest in Consolidated Industries for the author's personally prediction of an increased demand for heating oil in the northeastern United States. The author also provide some facets to convince us.  These facets seem acceptable at first blush but contain several flaws that I will discuss below.
   The arguer tells us a phenomenon happened last year that the region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures and the residents have traditonally used oil as their major fuel for heating. For evaluating the agrument' evidence, the author citing a prediction of a climate forecasters at Waymarsh University that this weather parten will continue fo several years.  Obviously there are some questionable points in the author's statement.  Firstly,we are not informed what the actural scale of the homes using oil for heating.  Besides, the traditionally uesd oil can not represent the the future used fuel and alternative fuel would soon come into use for heating.  Perhaps the residents will use central heating instead of the oil, accordingly the demand for heating oil might decrease.  Furthermore the weather patten in this reigon remian to be uncertain even though the forecasters had a prediction ,as we konw noting can be more changeable than the weather.
   The author assumption a casual relationship that many new homes have been built in this reigon during the past year will lead to increased demand for heating oil but fails to rule out some other situations that will weaken the relationship and the prediction.  Whether there would be persons living in the house remain unknown, perhaps the houses were built just for investment and the owners  would not live in newly built houses not to mention buying the oil for heating.  Even if the owners would live in the houses, we can not make sure they would also live in winters.  Maybe they would have a vocation to some warmer reigon to avoid the typically cold weather. Furthermore we aslo have no idea that whether the newly built houses adopt the oil heating or other heating system such as water heating and wood heating. The heating oil might be fallen into disuse because of the fossile energy crisis and the investment in Consolidated Industries would come to nothing for the investors.
   In conclusion, the argument could be improved by providing evidence that most of the region's residents including the owners of the newly built houses adopt the heating oil and they still requie great demand for it espacially in the winters. Only a convincing prediction with credible consideration is presented will the investors have trust in the in risky investment.