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The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In this argument, the arguer recommends that we should set up a new jazz club named C Note(C) in Monroe (M) because she predicts that the C will make money without doubt. To strengthen this recommendation, she cites several examples, such as the nearest jazz club is 60 miles away from M, some famous jazz musicians live in M; the speaker also shows a statistic from a nationwide study about the cost of a typical jazz fan spent in a year. Seemingly, this argument is somewhat persuasive; in fact, it provides little credible support for the profitability of this proposal.
First of all, hardly can we accept the auger's claim that the C club would own the local market all to itself just because there is no jazz club whose distance between M is less than 60 miles. As the argument indicates, the jazz fans living in M went to the jazz club over 60 miles away from M in the past and maybe the club is a high quality club with the most skillful DJs and excellent instruments. Except (Besides) that, even the club away from M is not better than the C club, we still couldn't come to a conclusion like that. As we all know, human being is a kind of animal with habitual behavior so that there will be someone used to go to other clubs even they are far away from their homes. So, without any convincing proof, the arguer cannot draw a conclusion that the C club will have the local market all to itself.
市场占有问题
Even I concede that the new club will get the local market all to itself, it still couldn't arrive at this that the new club will surely make money. The argument claims that jazz is popular in M by three examples; however, this might not be the case. For instance, perhaps over 90 percent of the people who attended M's jazz festival last summer don't live in M and these people live far away from M, even in other countries; perhaps those celebrated jazz musicians choose M to live only because M is a peaceful city and they don't want to play jazz any more. To support the popularity of jazz in M, the last fact is also weak. We don't have any idea about the number of programs when the "Jazz Nightly" begins; maybe there is only one program, "Jazz Nightly". Unless the arguer can convince me that all these possibilities are unlikely, I cannot accept the point of view that jazz is very popular in M.
流行问题
Finally, even assuming that the new club will get the local market all to itself and jazz is popular in M, the nationwide study about the cost of a jazz fan spent on jazz entertainment may be fake. Even if the nationwide study is credible, the people live in M may not spend too much on jazz entertainment. Even they spend as much money on jazz as the people in nationwide study; this money wouldn't all be used to pay for jazz club expenses.
消费问题
To sum up, there are not enough potent evidences to prove "the C club cannot help but make money", for this reason, the arguer have to account for more persuasive proves in order to convince us that the C club will profit to a fraction.
写的挺明白的,加强一下语言会更好的。
另外:题目要求是Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.但是本文通篇没有提到questions。 |
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