求拍，argument 50

小李大毛UID: 2885552

50:

The authorclaims that the study proves that lavender cures insomnia within a short periodof time. To support this assertion the author compares results of a study. The studyis conducted with 30 volunteers. The different results are concluded atdifferent time of the study. But the argument relies on a series ofunsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all,the study accorded different sleep quality every day without justification thatthe physical and psychology condition each night keep consistent. Perhaps theyworked harder during the daytime of the second week. So they felt more tiredthe next day.
In the secondplace, even if the reports of their sleep quality every night are reliable, effectof stopping medication provision which the author suggest based on the secondresult can be inexact. Perhaps volunteers became insecure without themedication. As many psychologists suggest that insecure people are more easilyget into insomnia, the aggravated symptoms are result from psychologicalreasons.
Thirdly, theauthor assumes that the longer and more soundly sleep indicates the recovery. However,this is not necessarily the case. The author fails to rule out other possibilitiesthat may result in the longer and more soundly sleep. Perhaps volunteers wereexhausted after two weeks’ experiment. Even if the scent of lavender flowers isthe only reason for the better sleep, the author provides no medical evidenceto certificate the recovery. Firstly, their sleeping time is compared withtheir own instead of average sleeping time of normal people. Maybe their sleepingtime is still far from being normal. Secondly, even if they can sleep regularly3 weeks later, they can regain problems in sleeping as soon as they come backhome as the changed sleeping environment. The claim that lavender curesinsomnia is hastily.
Finally, unlessanother study conducted at the same with the normal people, and concluded thecontrast result and assume the results are reliable, we can believe thatlavender is effective to these 30 patients. Furthermore, unless the selectionof 30 patients is random enough, there is possibility for us to trust the claimthat lavender is effective for insomnia. Perhaps volunteers coincide with thepeople who are in favor of the scent. The conclusion cannot be apply to thepeople dislike the scent, even may cause opposite effect.
In conclusion,the conclusion for this study is not convinced. To prove the conclusion, thepersonal information and the restricted environment condition should beoffered, so that analysis of the results can be reliable. More important tocomplete a scientific study is a controlled trial.
对试验分析题很迷茫...

小李大毛UID: 2885552

附题目：
An ancient, traditional remedy for insomnia—the scent of lavender flowers—has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. Therefore, the study proves that lavender cures insomnia within a short period of time.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.