求教，这道逻辑题怎么回事？

lic158UID: 2972709

12.The organizers of tomorrow's outdoor concert   
announced that it will go on tomorrow on schedule   
unless bad weather is forecast or too few advance   
tickets are sold. If the concert is canceled, refunds   
will be made to ticket holders. Since some ticket   
holders have already been issued refunds even though
more than enough advance tickets were sold, it must   
be the case that bad weather is forecast.   

Which of the following is an error of reasoning con-
tained in the argument?
(A) It proceeds as if a condition, which by itself is   
enough to guarantee a certain result, is the only   
condition under which that result would occur.   
(B) It bases a conclusion that is known to require   
two conditions on evidence that bears on only   
one of those conditions.
  (C) It explains one event as being caused by another   
event, even though both events must actually   
have been caused by some third, unidentified   
event.   
  (D) It treats evidence for the absence of one condi-
tion under which a circumstance would occur   
as conclusive evidence that that circumstance   
will not occur.   
  (E) Evidence given to support the conclusion actually   
undermines it.   


貌似选项都很抽象，我没怎么看懂，求高手解析一下，非常感谢！

zhengyuyu123UID: 2810409

A:提出一个条件（该条件是结果的充分条件）是导致结果的唯一条件；
B:根据一个条件得出结论（但该结论受两个条件影响）；
C：解释了一个事件会引发另一个事件，即使这两个事件会受第三个未识别的事件影响；
D：一种情况会发生的证据被当成了这种情况不会发生的证据；
E：用来支持结论的证据实际上消弱了结论

个人感觉答案是A，退票是结果，天气差是充分条件，但是不是必要条件，也就是说也可能有其他事件会导致退票，比如买的人太多等， 所以文中把天气差作为导致退票的唯一条件是有漏洞的

lic158UID: 2972709

2# zhengyuyu123 谢谢，翻译的很好，了解了，非常抱歉，好几天没上坛子逛了。。。哎，只剩10天了啊。。。