Argument 06， 希望能得到各位的指点！

wang6631UID: 3245402

第一次在30min内写完了。。希望大家能帮忙看看有些什么方面急需改进。

A06
Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Outline:1.对于猎人的调查并不可靠（虚假信息/利益关系）

2.全球变暖未必导致该地区冰地融化（地方特征）

3.未考虑动物自适应性（未必需要固守原有迁移方式）


In this argument, the author attributes the decline in the population of arctic deer to the destruction of their migration patterns. The analysis is based on a series of evidence related to environmental factors and their effects on deer. However, the deduction suffers from several critical flaws in lines of reasoning.

Firstly, the reports provided by local hunters can hardly be reliable. Common sense tells us that there is a direct interest relationship between the deer and local hunters. Perhaps through reporting the deer numbers to be lower than reality, the hunters can expect benefit from deceiving, such as extra subsidy from the government. Also, a claim of decline in deer population would certainly prevent hunters from other regions to compete with them, thus giving them an advantage in hunting deer and make money from it. Unless the author excludes the possibilities that the hunters make a report of fake population on purpose, this report remains unconvincing.

To add, the global warming does not necessarily lead to the melting of ice in this specific area. Considering the slow and gradual process of global warming and the distinctive characteristics of this certain region, it is entirely possible that global warming has little influence on the sea ice here. Perhaps plants in this area is distinctively capable of absorbing heat, therefore, regarding the trivial effect of global warming, it can never pose a substantial threat to sea ice. These plants could function effectively and may even lower local temperature, which is just the opposite of the author's assumption. Or perhaps sea ice in this region is accumulated over millions of years, preventing global warming from devastating it in a short period of time. Without eliminating all these possibilities, the author could not unfairly assume that sea ice is melt due to global warming.


Even assuming the melting of sea ice and the compromise of the old migration patterns, deer could find alternative ways to survive. Each species on earth owns a basic capacity of adaption, which means even faced with the damage of the past living habitats and migration styles, a species can adapt to the new circumstances with its own skills. While ice is melt, making it impossible to come across on foot, the deer may make an attempt to swim across the sea. Even they are still confined on the land, for the purpose of surviving, they may try to feed themselves on new kinds of plants or animals instead of the limited food they choose to eat before. When faced with starvation, deer would have no choices but to take in new species of plants and once these plants save their life, it could in the future become another source of energy. In a word, if take the adaption of a species into account, it would be too hasty to connect their declining number simply with the loss of the old migration pattern.

In sum, the analysis is based on a series of groundless assumptions and fails to provide convincing evidence on the exact reason for deer to decline in number. To solidify the conclusion, a more justifiable survey is required to conduct on local deer numbers. Also, to draw this conclusion, alternative ways for deer to feed and survive instead of crossing the ice should be eliminated.

shinian1987UID: 2797009

nice job