6.16党 argument 3，第三次练习，请大家指正

CallmeEUID: 3057560

3 The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plazastore owner.
Over the past two years, the number of shoppers inCentral Plaza has been steadily decreasingwhile the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe thatthe decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in theplaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litterand vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the cityprohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboardingis prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plazawill return to its previously high levels.


Write a response in which you discuss whatquestions would need to be answered in order to decide whether therecommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain howthe answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.




time: 40min                             words:525                    2012.6.2
Grounding on the finding of inverse proportionof the number of shoppers and skateboard users, supposing that the litter andvandalism were caused by the skateboard users, the editor predict that that ifskateboarding is prohibited here, the business in Central Plaza will return toits previous high level. Admittedly, it seems reasonable at a cursory glance.However, with a close examination, flaws, holes and unproved or ungroundedassumptions are pervasive in the argument, and thus, in order to fully evaluatethe article ,a lot of questions would to be answered.


The first question we need to be answeredis that whether the increase of skateboarding population is the cause of thedecrease of the number of shoppers in Central Plaza. The editor made a rough conclusionthat on the mere facts above. However, it would surely weaken the conclusion ifthe decrease of the business in Central Plaza is owing to others reasons. An alternativeexplanations may be that it is due to the change of the city structure. Perhapsthe city has moved its centre business district to somewhere else. Thus the businessin the old city centre was in a plunge. Another likelihood is that anothershopping mall with cheaper goods and better environment was opened up near theCentral Plaza. As a result, the customers were gradually changed their desiredshopping place. To the extent in these cases, the editor's conclusion that thedecrease of the Central Plaza is the result of the increase of the skateboardingpopulation seems to be un convincing.


Another question need to be answered tohelp evaluate the prediction is whether the dramatic increase in the amount oflitter and vandalism is caused by the skateboarders. The editors failed toprovide evidence to prove that this is the case. It would significantly weakenthe editor's point if the following case is true. Perhaps, the reason of thedramatic amount increase of litter is the due to the government'sinvestigation  decrease to the Plaza.Thanks to the adjustment of the city planning, the running class of the Plazadecided to transmit their focus on the newly developed city center. Thus, thequality of sanitary and 维护 jobs of Central Plaza was delemished. The editors point again,remains to be ungrounded.


In order to fully evaluate the prediction,more questions need to be answered. The article was appear as a letter from aCentral Plaza store owner. We have reasons to doubt the subjectivity of theargument. Are the survey respondents representative? Are the statements true?Maybe be the store owner who write this letter has conflicts of interest withthe skateboarders. Or he's just lack considering about the possible reasons fordecrease of his profits and blame all this on the skateboarders.


To sum up, although, the prediction theeditor made seems reasonable at first glance, more questions need to beconsidered, such as whether the inverse proportion of skateboard users and businessin Central Plaza are causally connected, whether the litter and vandalism werecaused by the skateboarders and the credibility of the statements the editormade. Without accounting this, the editor cannot convince me.

ripperseanUID: 2523263

怎么里面还有汉语呢。。。楼主写完后自己改了么？