求批改Argu 45题。

zgyyxyliupengUID：3462049

The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet.
In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit.
To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
结论（预测）：建立网上学位课程会帮助H大学增加它的学生人数并解决财政问题。
为什么会增加学生人数？因为附近的O大学建立了网上授课学生就变多了。
为什么会解决财政问题？因为附近的O大学极大可能因为建立了网上课程，其在宿舍和教室上花的钱变少了。
1（大隐含前提）H大学和O大学具有可比性。
—：很有可能O和H大学不具可比性。可能O大学很有威望，吸引了很多不能到该校学习的学生去上网络课程，但是H大学的名声和实力相对较差，所以无法吸引学生上远程课程。因此，需要提供证据证明O和H在原本的教学质量和实力方面一致。
2 O大学学生增加了50%，说明网络教学会对生源增长有很大帮助。
—：就算两所大学具有可比性，仅用50%的单一数据说明O大学网络教学生源增加了很多难以说服人。也许原来人数也就10个人，那增加百分之50并不稀奇。
3 Omini用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降的原因是远程教学通过互动网方式授课。
—：很有可能开支下降是因为本来宿舍和教室的状况就很好，因此不需要花钱进行维护。
4 投资建立网上授课会受益。
—：没有具体的数据说明投资建设网络课程以及后期维护等的费用，也许所要话花费的比投资在教室上的费用更多，这样不仅没有减少学校财政负担，反而使其负担更重。

In this memo, the president of Humana university predict that instituting online degree programs could help Humana university raise its total enrollment and solve its budget problems as nearby Omni University did. To support this prediction, the president lists several facts. However, I am not convinced for several reasons.

To evaluate the prediction, we first need to ask whether Humana University and Omni Univeristy are similar enough at every aspect and are indeed comparable. Perhaps they are total different in many aspects. For example, Omni University is a highly prestigious school, and it can attract many students who cannot take a class at this university to attend the online degree programs. On the contrary, the reputation and prestige of Humana University is much worse than Omni University, and thus cannot attract more students to attend the online degree programs. Consequently, the president should provide more information to illustrate that Humana University and Omni University are both similar in quality of teaching and reputation in order to strengthen the prediction.

Second, even assuming that two univeristies are similar in every aspects, we still should to ask what is the actual number of students who enrolled in long-distance programs at Omni University the year before last. Virtually, if the number of students the year before is 300 or so, the 50% increase might be meaningful. However, if the number is only 20 or so, the 50% increase might be insignificant. Hence, to bolster this prediction, the president should provide concrete data about the actual number of students in the online degree program the year before last.

Thirdly, another question concerning whether instituting online degree programs could attribute to  directly the decrease of costs for dormitory and classroom space. Perhaps buildings at Omni University is so excellent withou damage that they need not to be paid to repaire it. To bolster this, the president should rule out this possible explaination by providing some information.

The last question that should be addressed is that whether the investment of instituting online degree programs would benefit. If the costs for building and administering online degree programs are more than maintaining buildings at Humana University, and might gain a less benefit, the prediction for solving budget problems might not come true in the end. Therefore, the president should list a credible analysitic report to explain this project would help the university to gain a benefit.

In sum, due to several questions which do not be answered in the memo, this prediction from president of Humana University might be not cogent.