14年秋季提纲互改小组-Argument25

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25) The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
相关argument：100,102,164
请根据指引列出提纲并点评楼上组员的提纲或直接回帖参与讨论。
指引网址：https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777374-1-1.html

max940623UID: 3559548

一、分析题目中的Argument，按照上面的范例，列出claim、data并解释连接claim和data的warrant。
(一)Claim: A Jazz music club would be tremendous profitable in Monroe      
(二)Data或evidence:
(1) nearest Jazz club is 65 miles away
(2) "Jazz is extremely popular in Monroe"
     a. >100,000 attendance in Jazz festival last summer
     b. famous Jazz musicians live in Monroe
     c. Highest-rated program is Jazz Nightly
(3)Nationwide study indicate the expense on Jazz per year: 1000

（三）Warrant:
1. data(1)的warrant是club能占有整个市场 （不充分条件）
2. data(2)里三个的warrant：Jazz在M市很流行  （有他因）
3. data(3)的warrant：M市Jazz fan每年也能花1000刀在Jazz上 （整体推个体）
除此以外还有两个隐藏的，感觉没有直接连接data
4. Jazz受欢迎=Jazz club会受欢迎 （不充分条件）
5. 假设Jazz受欢迎，爱好者也都来club，证明了能赚钱。赚钱=盈利（profit问题）

二、根据题目的要求列出提纲以及描述要讨论的主要内容:
思路：这题错误太多，所以舍去了warrant1不谈，warrant3在说profit的时候提一下。这样2-4-5能有一个明显的连续让步，感觉逻辑好点。
提纲：
TS
Grounding on three suspicious evidences to indicate the popularity of Jazz, supposing that jazz lovers would enjoy the jazz club as well, then combining these two hypothesizes with the assumption that the club business can make a profit, the developers accordingly suggest that running a jazz club in Monroe will be tremendous profitable. However, even a casual glance could reveal how groundless this reasoning process is.
ts1
First of all, the hypothesis that no other factors than the popularity of Jazz results in over 100,000 attendance on Jazz festival last summer is untenable.因为可能有其他原因比如这里的居民喜欢凑热闹，任何类型的集会人都很多。再用一个similarly简单提一下另外两个同样错误的论据。最后说能真正证明爵士音乐流行程度的证据才能加强argument可信度

ts2
Even if Jazz is testified to be extremely popular, the arguers assume too hastily that the enthusiasm in Jazz necessarily leads to the attendance to a Jazz club. 举反例证明不是充分条件。需要能证明两者之间充分必要条件的证据。

ts3
Furthermore, since profit is determined not only by revenue but also cost, the conclusion that the proposed Jazz club is profitable can’t be substantiate. 虽然收入能被保证（ts1和ts2被证实的情况下），但是算入场地费版权费人工这些cost可能不能盈利。何况国家平均的人均1000消费不能适用到M市。要加强可信度必须提供详细的budget计入预期的cost和M市个人平均消费。

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po全文，辛苦老师帮忙改
Grounding on three suspicious evidences to indicate the popularity of Jazz, supposing that jazz lovers would enjoy the jazz club as well, then combining these two hypothesizes with the assumption that the club business can make a profit, the developers accordingly suggest that running a jazz club in Monroe will be tremendous profitable. However, even a casual glance could reveal how groundless this reasoning process is.

First of all, the hypothesis that no other factors than the popularity of Jazz results in over 100,000 attendance on Jazz festival last summer is untenable. Because the same outcome could be attained by a host of other conditions, such as the citizens here are so gregarious that any festivals could attract such a large amount attendance. Similarly, the residence of famous musicians may results from the livable environment of Monroe and the reputation of the Jazz program may benefit from its advantageous time at 7pm every weeknight. Above all, all the three evidences fails to prove the Jazz music is popular in Monroe, thus other effective evidence should be provided by these developers.

Even if Jazz is testified to be extremely popular, the arguers assume too hastily that the enthusiasm in Jazz necessarily leads to the attendance to a Jazz club. It’s probable that this group of Jazz lovers prefer enjoying the Jazz individually than sharing it with others in Jazz club. In order to complete the reasoning, these arguers should present proof on the causation between love in Jazz and participation in Jazz club.

Furthermore, since profit is determined not only by revenue but also cost, the conclusion that the proposed Jazz club is profitable can’t be substantiate. Admittedly, the revenue of this club is guaranteed if two assumption above could be supported by additional evidence and the nationwide Jazz fans’ average expense could apply in Monroe. But the cost, taking music copyright and crew employment in account, could offsets even outstrips the revenue. As a result, the specifics in the budget including revenue and cost of this proposed club should be able to strengthen the argument.

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

max940623 发表于 2014-11-3 20:03
po全文，辛苦老师帮忙改
Grounding on three suspicious evidences to indicate the popularity of Jazz,  ...

先点评一下你的提纲  感觉需要修改提纲后重新写 因此再次呼吁大家写全文前先发提纲 （英文句子+汉语解释）


一、分析题目中的Argument，按照上面的范例，列出claim、data并解释连接claim和data的warrant。
(一)Claim: A Jazz music club would be tremendous profitable in Monroe      
(二)Data或evidence:
(1) nearest Jazz club is 65 miles away
(2) "Jazz is extremely popular in Monroe"
     a. >100,000 attendance in Jazz festival last summer
     b. famous Jazz musicians live in Monroe
     c. Highest-rated program is Jazz Nightly
(3)Nationwide study indicate the expense on Jazz per year: 1000

（三）Warrant:
1. data(1)的warrant是club能占有整个市场 （不充分条件）
2. data(2)里三个的warrant：Jazz在M市很流行  （有他因）
3. data(3)的warrant：M市Jazz fan每年也能花1000刀在Jazz上 （整体推个体）
除此以外还有两个隐藏的，感觉没有直接连接data
4. Jazz受欢迎=Jazz club会受欢迎 （不充分条件）
5. 假设Jazz受欢迎，爱好者也都来club，证明了能赚钱。赚钱=盈利（profit问题）

你的分析是不错的，已经把握了论证的基本思路和结构，但是你做出的不谈warrant 1的决定是错误的。题目里的信息肯定要全面回应，不应该缺漏。这道题虽然有不少可以讨论的点，但是如果归纳来看，可以分作三方面

- C-note有没有竞争对手
- Jazz在当地是否真的流行以及是否会光顾C-note
- 全国性的调查能否说明当地人会在C-note上花钱及能否盈利


基本上中间三段可以按这三点来写
还有一个很重要的问题就是你对argument的理解受到老G材料的影响，全文都在讲各种谬误
但是题目的要求其实是
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
建议你去我的博客看看我写的argument范文
在措辞上不回应题目会死的很惨的  

这道题我刚才也写了一篇你可以参考一下
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1777232&page=6#pid1778964516


二、根据题目的要求列出提纲以及描述要讨论的主要内容:
思路：这题错误太多，所以舍去了warrant1不谈，warrant3在说profit的时候提一下。这样2-4-5能有一个明显的连续让步，感觉逻辑好点。
提纲：
TS
Grounding on three suspicious evidences to indicate the popularity of Jazz, supposing that jazz lovers would enjoy the jazz club as well, then combining these two hypothesizes with the assumption that the club business can make a profit, the developers accordingly suggest that running a jazz club in Monroe will be tremendous profitable. However, even a casual glance could reveal how groundless this reasoning process is.
ts1
First of all, the hypothesis that no other factors than the popularity of Jazz results in over 100,000 attendance on Jazz festival last summer is untenable.因为可能有其他原因比如这里的居民喜欢凑热闹，任何类型的集会人都很多。再用一个similarly简单提一下另外两个同样错误的论 据。最后说能真正证明爵士音乐流行程度的证据才能加强argument可信度

ts2
Even if Jazz is testified to be extremely popular, the arguers assume too hastily that the enthusiasm in Jazz necessarily leads to the attendance to a Jazz club. 举反例证明不是充分条件。需要能证明两者之间充分必要条件的证据。

ts3
Furthermore, since profit is determined not only by revenue but also cost, the conclusion that the proposed Jazz club is profitable can’t be substantiate. 虽然收入能被保证（ts1和ts2被证实的情况下），但是算入场地费版权费人工这些cost可能不能盈利。何况国家平均的人均1000消费不能适用到M 市。要加强可信度必须提供详细的budget计入预期的cost和M市个人平均消费。

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

max940623 发表于 2014-11-3 20:03
po全文，辛苦老师帮忙改
Grounding on three suspicious evidences to indicate the popularity of Jazz,  ...

已经点评提纲并提供范文

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

cx1225 发表于 2014-11-16 23:18
claim: A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise.
data:
the neares ...

请按https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777232-1-1.html 103楼的格式编辑你的提纲 然后站内信通知我点评