supersam 习作练习帖

supersamUID: 3589628

tesolchina 发表于 2015-8-11 16:18
建议你看看我写的argument 35 像你提到洗衣服 喝水 这些都和题目讨论的showerhead没有关系

好的 谢谢老师指导！  太粗心 将喷头想成水龙头用水了...

supersamUID: 3589628

supersam Argument 15 outline alternative explanation
The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

"Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.


fact1: In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained

explanation1: an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change

fact2: an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change

explanation2 : either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

overall explanation: This change, however, has had little impact on our customers


At fist glance, it might seem to agree with manager's argument that the action that butter was replaced by margarine had little impact in the Happy Pancake House on its customers. There are a number of alternative explanations for few complaints and related issues involving issues

TS1: The manager argues the change had little effect on the consumers in HPH based on the information about few complaints.
或许顾客觉得很不满意，不想再来了。解释理由是：只是因为抱怨太麻烦了，或者已经抱怨了，只是manager没注意到

TS2: It is also argued that most of the customers were satisfied with the change according to the information that only about 2% of customers complained about this change.
98%并非满意，解释理由是他们大部分人不满意的人不会选择去抱怨。

TS3: The manager believed that the customers asking for butter do not tell the difference between the buffer and the margarine because many servers said that these people rarely complained about receiving the later.
并非大部分人分辨不出来，解释理由是many servers占得所有servers的比例或许很小，其他的servers收到了很多complaints

supersamUID: 3589628

supersam Argument 3 outline question
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.”
  
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.


claim：If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels

觉得questions类型的提纲和TS里面一模一样，所以就没有列了

At first glance, it might seem to agree with the Central Plaza store owner's argument that the business in Central Plaza are predicted to return to a high levels as it was before if the skateboarding is forbidden in that plaza. However, in order to evaluate this argument, a number of questions are needed to be answered about the customers’ attitude towards the plaza, the real cause of the increasing litter and vandalism, and other related issues.

TS1:
The first question is why fewer and fewer shoppers come to this plaza.
或许是周围开了更好的购物中心，消费者可以买到物美价廉的商品，有地方停车等。或者现在顾客选择网上购物了。

TS2:
Another question is whether the increasing litter and vandalism is caused by these skateboarders in that plaza.
或者是因为新请来的清洁工没做好本职工作，同样，破坏公物或者是因为监管不到位。


TS3:
The final issue we need to address is whether the business in the owner's plaza would become better, in the condition of skateboarding prohibited.
或许人们对这个中心的印象已经变差了，或许人们的居住地从plaza附近转移到了安静的乡镇，或许是经济不景气，人们减少了购物次数。

supersamUID: 3589628

supersam Argument 4 outline assumption
4) The following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend.
Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.   

claim:
Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams Realty is clearly superior.
Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty.

At first glance, it might seem to agree with the writer's argument that his or her friend should choose the Adams Realty, in order to sell house faster and at a higher price. However, in order to fully evaluate this argument, a number of assumptions are needed to be reexamined carefully about the real ability to sell house of the full-time and part-time sellers, the median prices of the price of the house of these two companies, and other related factors.

TS1:
It is assumed implicitly that the full-time workers can sell house faster than the part-time.
或许part-time说明效率高，该公司的特色就是找part-time的人，他们通过其他工作来结实跟多的人，这样更好卖房

TS2:
It is also assumed that Adams Realty is superior to Fitch Realty based on the record of high average price of house sold.
均价高，或许是因为某一个特别高，拔高了整体，我们需要看的是中位数和众数。

TS3:
The third assumption is that other factors have remained unchanged throughout the 9 years.
或许当时房地产也不好，现在好了。或许现在有人迫切需要的这套房子，或许过去的房子要价过高，没人愿意买。

supersamUID: 3589628

supersam Argument 5 outline question (同159,173)
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.


claim: By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

At first glance it might seem to agree with writer's argument that in order to decrease the number of accidents involving mopeds, Balmer should implement a policy to limit the rental rate of the moped which was adopted in the near island. There are a number of questions needed to be answered about the cause of accidents, the difference between these two islands, and other related issues.

TS1：
The first question is that how many residents have their mopeds.
如果居民自己有moped，那么减少租赁没什么效果。

TS2:
Another question needed to be investigated is that whether it is the fault of the mopeds that cause the accidents.
或许是行人违反交通规则，闯红灯。交通警告牌不多。

TS3：
The third question we need to answer is that whether other more draconian measures were taken to decrease the accidents when the police about limiting rental rate was implemented in seaville.  
或许是在seaville有一些严厉的处罚措施。让人们注意安全，不敢超速等。


Argument173 assumption
At first glance, it might seem to agree with the writer's argument that in order to reduce moped accidents, Balmer should adopt the policy of limiting the rental rate of moped which was implement in the near island and has desirable results. However, in order to fully evaluate this argument, a number of assumptions are needed to be reexamined carefully about the source of local moped in Balmer, causes of the accidents in Balmer, and the reason why accidents declined in Torseau.

It is assumed that few residents in Balmer have their own moped.

It is also assumed that the mopeds are the only cause of the accidents in Balmer.

The third assumption is that similar policy implemented in Torseau was the main reason why accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians decreased.

supersamUID: 3589628

supersam Argument 6 outline evidence
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions.

They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year.

Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.

Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining.

Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.


At first glance, it might seem to agree with the writer's argument that the population of deer is dropping according to the report from hunter and the global warming trend. However, in order to fully evaluate this argument, we need to collect additional evidence about whether what the hunters said is reliable, the lifestyle of the deer, and the weather condition in Arctic.

The first piece of evidence that we need to evaluate the writer's claim is validity about information from the hunters.
采访了多少猎人？ 猎人不能recall accurately

Another piece of evidence that may help us to better evaluate this claim involves the possibility that deer may hibernate in a particular place where hunters hardly found in the winter.
冬眠，不出来活动了，所以猎人不经常看到了

The third piece of evidence needed to access the argument is whether it is colder than before.
Global worming may not necessarily mean local warming.