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补7月28号作文
100) The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The group of developers believed that it would be tremendously profitable to open a jazz club in Monroe. Their argument was based on the assumptions as follow, the popularity of jazz music in Monroe, the acceptance of the jazz fans about the new club, the willing of jazz fans in Monroe to spend money in the club. We need to exam the assumptions in order to evaluate the validity of the argument.
To begin with, the developers argued that jazz music is extremely popular in this city, because of the large number of people who attended Monroe’s jazz music festival, the highest rate of the radio program ‘Jazz Nightly’, and the fact that a number of jazz musician own homes in Monroe. However, it is too precipitous for the developers to make the conclusion about the popularity of jazz music in this city. First, most of people who attended the jazz music festival may come from other cities, and there would be only a small part of them were natives in Monroe. Second, it is possible that the highest rate of the radio program was concluded from a survey based on a small group of people who cannot represent the people in this city. In addition, it may be only very few people in that city who still listen to radio program because the accesses to Television and Internet. Lastly, it is possible that the jazz musicians own homes in this city in other reasons than the popularity of jazz music, such as the profit of investment. Thus, in order to draw a conclusion about popularity of jazz music, the developer should reconsider the cases above.
Further, the developer argued that it was profitable to open a jazz music club in the city because the nearest jazz club is one hour away. They assumed that jazz fan would certainly choose the club near in the city instead of the one far away. There are many factors influencing the jazz fan to choose a club, such as the environment of the club, the jazz musicians performing in the club, and the cost in the club. The location of a jazz club cannot solely be attractive enough to jazz fans to choose it. Therefore, the argument of the developers is unconvincing.
Lastly, they assume that jazz musician in the city would likely to spend money in the club in the light of a nationwide survey. However, a nationwide survey cannot demonstrate the real situation in the city, because that the real consumption ability of people in the city may be lower than the nationwide average. Even if jazz fans in Monroe would spend that amount of money in jazz entertainment, it is unclear how they distribute their money in it. It is possible that they may spend large portion of the money in jazz concert which is always expensive or in jazz music CDs which release at a very fast speed. Without further information of jazz fans in Monroe, the club may not be profitable as they assume.
To conclude, the argument of the developers of the popularity of jazz in Monroe may be invalid. More information about the club besides the location and about the jazz fans should be offered to determine whether it is profitable to open a club in Monroe.
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