岳然的AW练习日志：习作、提纲、感悟

岳然UID: 3654715

The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

"To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

The manager of WWAC radio station argues that the WWAC should change its current rock-music format to a news and talk one which is gaining popularity among the area. He based his argument on his assumptions that the increasing population in the listening area consists mainly of retired people who do not favor rock music, as the local sales of recorded music is declining. To evaluate this advice, we still need several pieces of evidence on the retired people's music preference, the demographic structure of this area, and the general popularity of radio programs.

The first piece of evidence we need is one confirming that the retired people who newly moved in are in fact not interested in rock music. Although the local sales of recorded music is suffering from a decline, it does not necessarily suggest that those retired people are not rock music fans. It is possible that they already have bought their music collections before they moved to this area, or they nowadays listen to music online, or on the radio, like most people do. For the same reason, we can also not jump to the conclusion that local people are losing their interest in rock music, either.

Furthermore, even when the new residents are not interested in rock music as the manager suggests, we still need evidence on the demographic structure of this area, or more specifically, the percentage of retired people in the whole population. Although the increasing population are mainly newly moved-in retired people, we have no information about for how much percentage those people account of the whole population. If that percentage is small and the locals are indeed still enjoying listening to rock music, the radio station might lose more audience than it can gain by changing the format to news and talk.

Last but not least, we need evidence on the general popularity of radio programs as a whole. The reason for WWAC losing its audience is not necessarily only due to the change of people's taste, but also due to people's decreasing interest in radio programs in general. After all, people nowadays can easily gain access to different types of programs through the internet and thus the radio programs will inevitably lose their popularity in the long run. Whether or not to change the radio format can thus has little impact on the decrease of listeners of the radio station.

In conclusion, it is not reasonable to follow the advice based on the information alone given by the manager. We still need more evidence, as mentioned above, to decide whether or not to change the radio format and to which format in order to gain more listeners.

岳然UID: 3654715

The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.

Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station's coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have canceled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to our news programs and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should expand our coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

The manager of the TV station argues that the station should increase the coverage of weather and local news for all their news programs. He based his argument on the fact that most complaints received by the TV station were concerned with the coverage of weather and local news and local business canceled their contracts with the TV station. A number of assumptions have been made: that the complainers can represent all the viewers, that the local business canceled the contracts due to the decreased coverage of weather and local news, and that the strategy on the late-night news programs can be applied to all other news programs.

The manager assumes that the viewers who have filed complaints could represent all the viewers. Although most of them complained about the coverage of weather and local news, it does not necessarily mean that other viewers, who have not shown their opinions, are not satisfied with the current structure of the program. Maybe the complaining viewers would just complain about anything that has been changed, which is not necessarily because of the reduction of the weather and local news. Without information of the general opinion of all the viewers on the coverage of different news, the manager's advice might lead to a decrease in the number of viewers.

Furthermore, the manager assumes that the local business canceled the advertising contracts due to the decreased coverage of weather and local news. There can be many other reasons for such decisions. It is entirely possible that the local business canceled the contracts simply because they are suffering from a decrease in profit due to the flagging local economy. If that is true, changing the content of the news program would not win those contracts back and other local business might be still going to cancel their contracts.

Last but not least, even if the decreased coverage of weather and local news did lead to a declined number of viewers, it should not be assumed that this is the case for all other news programs. After all, the targeted groups of audiences are very different between, say, daytime news and late news. If it turns out that viewers of daytime news programs favor national news more, the advice proposed by the manager may push those viewers away.

In conclusion, this advice of the manager based on several unwarranted assumptions as mentioned above. Without further evidence confirming these assumptions, it is not reasonable to follow the advice.