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发表于 2004-7-30 11:30:05
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135. The following is a memorandum from the business manager of WLSS television station.
"Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increasingly more time to covering national news and less time to covering weather and local news. During the same time period, most of the complaints we received from viewers were concerned with the station's coverage of weather and local news. In addition, several local businesses that used to run advertisements during our late-night news program have just cancelled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to our news programs and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should expand the coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs."
This argument suggests that WLSS television station should expand its coverage of weather and local new on all its news programs. To support this conclusion the arguer provides two evidences. The argument is flawed in several important respects.
Firstly, the arguer unjustifiably attributes the decreasing advertising revenue to the declining weather and local news coverage time of late-night news program, while there are many other fact that can explain why several local businesses that use to run advertisement during the late-night news program of WLSS television station cancelled the advertising contracts with it. Perhaps these local businesses suffered from some economic problems and did not have enough money to run advertisement any longer. Or perhaps these businesses have already earned good reputation and it is unnecessary for them to use advertisement to help promote their goods. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the arguer cannot conclude hastily that the decreasing advertisement has anything to do with the coverage time of weather and local news in the late-night news program and the expansion of coverage of this kind of news might help to increase the advertising revenue.
Secondly, there are three flaws concerned about the complaints. First, the reasons for these complaints are various. It is entirely possible that the complaints have nothing to with the decreasing coverage time of weather and local news programs but are concerned with the quality or broadcaster of these programs. It is also possible that the complaints are due to too much time that used to cover weather and local news. Or perhaps these complaints are attributable to the change of other programs on coverage of the weather and local news which bear no relation to coverage time of these kinds of news at the same time. Second, the number of audiences who complained is not mentioned. Perhaps the number of complainers is very small such as 5 or less, then even most of these complainers are concerned about the coverage time of weather and local news, their opinion may be unrepresentative of all viewers. Third, whether the number of viewers of WLSS television station really decline is unknown. It is possible that some people set complaints to the station yet still view the programs of WLSS. Therefore, unless the arguer provides evidences to support that the number of views declined actually, the conclusion that decreasing coverage of weather and location news influence the number of views is unconvincing. In sum, without detailed information about complaints and the audience rating, conclusion that the coverage of weather and local news should be expanded and this expansion can help attract more views is unreasonable.
Thirdly, even if complaints are representative, the audience rating really declined and these facts are attributable to the decreasing time coverage of weather and local news on the late-night programs, the arguer unfairly suggested that the coverage of weather and local news should expand on all the programs. It is entirely possible that except late-night programs, on other programs of WLSS, the time spend on weather and local news has already been long enough to satisfy the viewers. Therefore it is unnecessary for the WLSS to expand the weather and local new coverage on these programs.
In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strength the argument, the arguer should establish the relations between the decreasing time coverage of weather and local news on the late-night programs with the decreasing revenue of the advertising as well as with the complaints.
谢谢指点:) |
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