Argument208 第四篇，高频！自我感觉应该具体再具体，决不说逻辑空话！希望给大伙

blur13_0UID: 150275

Argument208
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."
一些最近的调查表明，房主越来越强烈地希望节省能源，并且生产商现在正在推出很多比十年前的电器几乎节能两倍的家用电器，比如冰箱和空调。而且，更好的房屋隔热和被动式太阳能采暖的新技术已经可以用于减少家庭采暖所需的能源。因此，我们预计我们地区的用电需求总量不会增加，而可能有轻微下降。由于我们的已经运作了20年的三座发电站总能够满足需求，我们无需建造新的发电厂。
提纲
1validity, speed degree, the electric power, how many kinds of,
2the assertion that problematic, how much can conserve? How many families choose? What is the average temperature, how about the climate?
3increasing population, other alternative factors can cause the increase, more factories, and more office buildings and shopping malls.
正文
This argument cannot stand up to any scrutiny for its several flaws.

Firstly, the surveys mentioned above cannot support the assertion that the demand for electricity in this area will decline. Primarily, the validity of the surveys is worth questioning. The speaker does not provide when and where these surveys were conducted. It is possible that only 10 persons are concerned with these surveys while there is a population of 1,000,000. If so these surveys are not representative.
What is more, common sense tells us the rate does not represent the amount. For example, if with the more power amplified for more functions, the average amount of energy consumed by most current refrigerators increased four times that needed for those sold a decade ago. Then the total amount of energy cost by a new refrigerator may be still double although it is twice as energy-efficient as the old ones. In addition, how many kinds of home appliances can save energy as refrigerators and air conditioners? Perhaps these ones only take a little share of the market such as one percent and thus can hardly represent most appliances.

Secondly, even if new technologies of insulation and solar heating can reduce the energy needed for the home heating, we cannot assume that they are suitable for this area. The speaker fails to give the specific characteristics of these new technologies and this area. Do most people necessarily choose and utilize these new technologies? It is possible the price of this staff and cost of complex installation are too high for the homeowners to afford because the overall condition of lives in this region is very low. Moreover, what is the condition of weather and climate in this area? If it is always rainy and cloudy in most days in a year for its geographic location in a basin, the passive solar heating may seldom normally work under such a sunless situation. Besides, what is the average temperature in a year of this region? Perhaps the weather keeps the outdoor temperature constantly warm from 28c’ to 18c’ in most time of a year so that the indoor temperature is usually comfortable even without new home insulation. In this case, most homeowners maybe need not choose these new technologies to conserve energy and thus which will little influence the total demand for the electricity in this area.

Finally, even if the current demand for electricity does decline slightly, it is too arbitrary to conclude that construction of new generating plants is not necessary. It is completely that with the development of this area its overall population maybe largely increases and thus leads to the increasing total amount of energy according to more homeowners. Further, the increasing population will call for more corresponding services, such as new factories, office buildings, shopping malls, schools and so on, which will undoubtedly demand much more electricity than what the current three plants can provide.  

To sum up, it is too arbitrary for the electric power company to make such a decision because the evidences and reasoning mentioned above are not sufficient and well grounded. To shape a proper project, it is necessary to conduct more scientific surveys, collect more specific evidence of markets and consider the exact condition of this area.

naiba369UID: 131655

内容还行

开头太少了吧，有点过头了

blur13_0UID: 150275

naiba369 兄，这是我第一次考，呵呵，2月21

开头，从官方范文的评语中感觉，开头挣分不多，我限时写300字还难呢，所以决心主攻substantial bodies，而不是推逻辑空话，否则肯定死得很惨！

delta496UID: 193816

有道理，我也打算把开头写简短些
但我认为把作者观点写出来还是有必要的

tottiUID: 184291

首段太短吧?我觉得总还是要说明原文的错误,不然就一句人家以为你是时间来不及最后随便补上的呢
总体感觉层次感很强,论述也很充分呀.

blur13_0UID: 150275

兄弟们看看ets5分文（限5分下，大牛们不含在内）的评语吧，担心是多余的！！！大胆段开头吧，以最快速度进入正题！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！ ;) 有点激动  :D