argument232 二月机经, 23号考，谢谢指点

ouenoUID: 194212

Argument232  第2篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！

summary
1 cause oversimlification of the sale decline
2 sufficiency of the recommendation
3 the necessity of the recommendation
4 information too vague about the study



------摘要------
作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：30分2秒     517 words
从2005年1月11日21时40分到2005年1月11日22时30分
------题目------
The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
'Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song.'
------正文------
In the argument, the author concludes that the company should switch to advertisement with memorable song to boost the company profits. To justify the recommendation, the author cites a study that shows easy recognition of the some soft drinks and fast-food restaurants because of popular songs. The author also points out that declined sales of the company is due to ineffective advertisement. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat reasonable, but a close scrutiny of it reveals that it commits several critical fallacies.
One problem with the argument is that the author unfairly assumes that magazine advertisement is the only cause of declining sales of the home appliances. Although advertisement might be an contributing factor to the decline, it is not necessarily the only cause. Other possible factors might also account for the decrease. For example, it is possible that the overall economy conditions was poor last year, or the government has established fiscal policies such as raising taxes of energy industries, which is obstructive for the development of the home appliance industry, or perhaps the political climate in the country is in its valley, thus making the whole society in a state of disorder or chaos. Without considering other possible factors such as these, it is dubious to conclude that the fail of advertisement to be the only cause of the sale decline.
Another problem with the problem is that the author provides the assumption that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song will definitely boost company profits. However, he provides no evidence to support it. The author fails to consider that advertisement featuring a distinctive song requires a large sum of expenses, which may exert high financial pressure on the company for a short time, even over a long period of time. Moreover, if the sale decline has nothing to do with the advertisement, then the author's recommendation will not improve the sale of the company, while at the same time it will deteriorate the financial conditions of the company, which will probably result in its bankruptcy.
In addition, even if granted that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song can increase company profits, the author suggest that no other action can achieve the same success. However, it is entirely possible that the company might improve its profits by raising the quality of the products, providing more agreeable services or reducing its prices.
The final fallacy involves the study itself, which is described in a vaguest possible term. The author produces no evidences that who conducted the study, who responded, or how the study was conducted. What's more, we are not informed that whether the respondents are representative of the population and how many of the subjects responded.
In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better support the conclusion, the author must provide clear evidence that advertisement is just the cause of decreased sale and the changed advertising method can right reverse the decline sales. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know more about what the size of the study sample was and how the study was conducted.

xiongyicnUID: 192745

------正文------
In the argument, the author concludes that the company should switch to advertisement with memorable song to boost the company profits. To justify the recommendation, the author cites a study that shows easy recognition of the some soft drinks and fast-food restaurants because of popular songs. The author also points out that declined sales of the company is due to ineffective advertisement. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat reasonable, but a close scrutiny of it reveals that it commits several critical fallacies.

One problem with the argument is that the author unfairly assumes that magazine advertisement is the only cause of declining sales of the home appliances.原argument说的是尽管在杂志上做的大量的广告，但是销售还是下降。这和你这里论述的不一样吧？你是说作者认为杂志广告是销售下降的唯一原因。这两个不是同一个意思吧 Although advertisement might be an contributing factor to the decline, it is not necessarily the only cause. Other possible factors might also account for the decrease. For example, it is possible that the overall economy conditions was poor last year, or the government has established fiscal policies such as raising taxes of energy industries, which is obstructive for the development of the home appliance industry, or perhaps the political climate in the country is in its valley, thus making the whole society in a state of disorder or chaos. 这一段反例不错，不过个人认为还可以深入Without considering other possible factors such as these, it is dubious to conclude that the fail of advertisement to be the only cause of the sale decline.
这一段的反例不错，其实太generalization的话没有details的话在ETS受欢迎

Another problem with the problem argument，写成problem了is that the author provides the assumption that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song will definitely boost company profits. However, he provides no evidence to support it. The author fails to consider that advertisement featuring a distinctive song requires a large sum of expenses, which may exert high financial pressure on the company for a short time, even over a long period of time. Moreover, if the sale decline has nothing to do with the advertisement, then the author's recommendation will not improve the sale of the company, while at the same time it will deteriorate the financial conditions of the company, which will probably result in its bankruptcy.


In addition, even if granted that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song can increase company profits, the author suggest that no other action can achieve the same success.原文中没有说这是唯一的方式，也没有说这是最好的方式啊？ However, it is entirely possible that the company might improve its profits by raising the quality of the products, providing more agreeable services or reducing its prices.
The final fallacy involves the study itself, which is described in a vaguest possible term. The author produces no evidences that who conducted the study, who responded, or how the study was conducted. What's more, we are not informed that whether the respondents are representative of the population and how many of the subjects responded.
不要说太general的话，应该深入细节

In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better support the conclusion, the author must provide clear evidence that advertisement is just the cause of decreased sale and the changed advertising method can right reverse the decline sales. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know more about what the size of the study sample was and how the study was conducted.

模板的影子太浓，深受XDF的影响，跟我现在一样，前两天看了精华区一些牛人对官方argu范文的分析，觉得模板和一些套话并不是太有必要，深入的反驳，深入细节，fully-development才是关键

louchen1984UID: 172975

你也是23号考吗？在哪里考？

lululiu8412UID: 195354

我的还是发到别处好了~真不好意思

ouenoUID: 194212

to xiongyicn
谢谢你的建议
有几点我想得不很明白

题中没直接说广告引起销量下降, 但提到了广告的原因,可否写成correlation to casually  related? 我记得以前老师说这还是蛮强的攻击点

还有我也觉得摸板的感觉太重了,不知道要攻击study有什么具体的反例吗,是否就是自己编数字举反例的?

等我修改好了再帖一下吧.

xiongyicnUID: 192745

我的意见写argu不用那么多术语，当然用了估计也没有负面影响，但不会有太大的积极作用，我们可以看官方的几篇满分范文都没有用到这样或那样新东方的术语，他们的写作非常活，我现在也正在困惑中，究竟使用XDF中的一些常用的句式，错误名称（这种方法比较省事）还是自由一些发挥（能拿高分，但是需要fully-development和活跃的写作方式，当然逻辑错误也要反驳有力）。
我觉得可以看看精华区imong总结的argu的三篇文章，我很是有感受。

ouenoUID: 194212

In the argument, the author concludes that the company should switch to advertisement with memorable song to boost the company profits. To justify the recommendation, the author cites a study that shows easy recognition of the some soft drinks and fast-food restaurants because of popular songs. The author also points out that declined sales of the company is due to ineffective advertisement. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat reasonable, but a close scrutiny of it reveals that it commits several critical fallacies.

One problem with the argument is that the author unfairly assumes that magazine advertisement is the only cause of declining sales of the home appliances. Although advertisement might be an contributing factor to the decline, it is not necessarily the only cause. For example, it is possible that the overall economy conditions was poor last year, or the government has established fiscal policies such as raising taxes of energy industries, which is obstructive for the development of the home appliance industry, or perhaps the political climate in the country is in its valley, thus making the whole society in a state of disorder or chaos. Without considering other possible factors such as these, it is dubious to conclude that the fail of advertisement to be the only cause of the sale decline.

[B](To begin with, the author assumes an unproven cause and effect relationship between magazine advertisement and declining sales of the home appliances. But no evidence is offered to justify the
assumption, thus leaving open that Other possible factors might also account for the decrease. For example, it is possible that the overall economy conditions was poor last year, or the government has established fiscal policies such as raising taxes of energy industries, which is obstructive for the development of the home appliance industry, or perhaps the political climate in the country is in its valley, thus making the whole society in a state of disorder or chaos. Without considering other possible factors such as these, it is dubious to conclude that the fail of advertisement to be the only cause of the sale decline.)[/B]

Another problem with the argument is that the author provides the assumption that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song will definitely boost company profits. However, he provides no evidence to support it. The author fails to consider that advertisement featuring a distinctive song requires a large sum of expenses, which may exert high financial pressure on the company for a short time, even over a long period of time. Moreover, if the sale decline has nothing to do with the advertisement, then the author's recommendation will not improve the sale of the company, while at the same time it will deteriorate the financial conditions of the company, which will probably result in its bankruptcy.

In addition, even if granted that switching to advertisements featuring a distinctive song can increase company profits, the author suggest that no other action can achieve the same success. However, it is entirely possible that the company might improve its profits by raising the quality of the products, providing more agreeable services or reducing its prices.

The final fallacy involves the study itself, which is described in a vaguest possible term. The author produces no evidences that who conducted the study, who responded, or how the study was conducted. What's more, we are not informed that whether the respondents are representative of the population and how many of the subjects responded.

In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better support the conclusion, the author must provide clear evidence that advertisement is just the cause of decreased sale and the changed advertising method can right reverse the decline sales. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know more about what the size of the study sample was and how the study was conducted.

[B](补充几个攻击点如下:
It is highly doubtful that the fact drawn from soft drinks and fast-food restaurants is applicable to home appliances. Although there are some comparisons between the two events, the differences far outweigh the similarities. For instance, soft drinks and fast food are usually sold at a low price and are frequently consumed, while, home appliance are often of high price and are rarely purchased by average family. This difference will result in an entirely different attitude towards advertisement, that is, when it comes to the inexpensive, people make choices largely on advertisement and when it deals with the expensive, factors such as price or quality take precedence over advertisement in people’s determination. Without considering such factors, the argument fails to discredit the recommendation.

Although the author assumes that the high school students’ reaction toward advertisement is representative of that of the whole population, it supplies no evidence whatsoever to substantiate the assumption. It is just as likely that high school students are much more familiar with pop songs while adults of the aged know little about them. If so, then the effect of advertisement featuring a distinctive song on the whole population is open to doubt.)[/B]