- 最后登录
- 2011-8-18
- 在线时间
- 40 小时
- 寄托币
- 1495
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2003-12-6
- 阅读权限
- 25
- 帖子
- 4
- 精华
- 1
- 积分
- 727
- UID
- 151037

- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 1495
- 注册时间
- 2003-12-6
- 精华
- 1
- 帖子
- 4
|
Argument 14 the first one 超时15分
By citing the result of a national survey and the fact that the sale of the magazine Great Garden has sold out at the Village News stand for three monthes, the author concludes that people are becoming more interested in growing their own vegetables. Meanwhile, the author further claims thatGreen Thumb Gardening Center (GEGE) could gain more profits because of the various and plentiful vegetable seeds the center stock. Careful scrutiny will reveal that this argument is not well supported as it stands.
The major problem with the memo is the validity of the survey. The author fails to provide any concrete details of this survey, such as the process of the survey, the representativeness of the respondents involved in this survey, the total amount of the samplers of the survey and so on. Lacking such information, I cannot accept the result of the survey, not to mention the conclusion based on this questionable survey.
Another problem worth consideration is that the mere fact that the magazine has sold out at only one stand for three monthes is little indication that the magazine is welcomed. On one side, three monthes is not a sufficiently long time span to draw the conclusion that the magazine is in need. Perhaps to increase its sale the magazine recently promote certain measures, like reducing the price, greeting gifts and so on. It is possible that without such strategies the sales of this magazine may decline. On the other hand, whether the sales of the Village News stand can typify the whole stands through this area is open to doubt. Without certain evidence, I cannot be convinced that the sale of this magazine is good in the future and in the whole area.
Furthermore, even asuming that the magazine is welcomed, it is presumptuous to conclude that consumers are becoming more interested in growing their own vegetables. Query whether these magazines are purchased by the persons who are interested in growing vegetables. Maybe the majority of these magazines are sold to the companies growing and solding vegetables. In this scenario, the author's conclusion is undermined.
Finally, even if more consumers are more interested in growing vegetables, as the author asserts, and will buy the seeds, there is little evidence that they will buy the seeds of GTGC. It is very likely that there are many other companies as GEGC selling seeds at the price lower than GTGC. Or the seeds of other companies is better than those of GTGC. Or the location of GTGS is distant from its potential consumers, to seek convenience, the consumers buy other companies’ seeds rather than GTGC. Each of these scenarios would serve to undermine the author's assertion that GTGC will gain more profits.
In sum, this memo is not well substantiated. To better assess it, the author needs to provide detail information concerning the survey, the result of which weighs a lot in determining the validity of the memo. Meanwhile, we need to know whether the increase of sales of the magazine is a short and respective phenomenon or a long and pandemic one. To make the argument more convincing, the author should make a careful analysis about the competing condition in the seeds market in the town. Furthermore, the author also needs to provide evidence to prove that it is largely the consumers who are interested in growing their own vegetables that contribute to the increase of the sales of the magazine. |
|