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------题目------
The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
'The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline.'
------正文------
In this letter, the author points out that the numbers of amphibians worldwide has declined. It is true, which the author also realizes, that the global pollution of water and air has contribute to this problem, but what the statement and evidence he/she shows contains several illogical flaws which render the argument unconvincing.
The threshold problem is related to the two studies held in Yosemite National Park in California. As the author provides no further information about both the studies, the results derived from them are dubious. For example, who did the two studies? How have the two studies been processed? Are the results credible or authoritative? Moreover, the two studies may be held at different seasons, that one is in summer in 1915 while the other autumn in 1992, a time that some species are likely to have hibernated. Without such evidence concerning about these aspects, the author's conclusion is also suspect.
Even if the results from the two studies are credible and authoritative, the decline of the species cannot substantiate that it is due to the worldwide pollution, since the author does not supply any statistics and records about the transformation of the environment in Yosemite National Park in California. In this case, there is a probability that the environment remains the same in this area. Additionally, the author also points out that in 1920 the trout has been introduced into this park. It is entirely possible that the decline of the species is due to the introduction in that the trout eat the amphibian eggs. However, at the same time, as we do not see the situation if these trouts are moved away, in which the species may increase, the author cannot draw the conclusion that the introduction of the trout is not the real reason.
Finally, the argument also contains three aspects which reject it out of the conclusion. The first one involves that the author falsely equates the "numbers" and the "species" of the amphibians. Common sense and experience tell me that even though the species of the amphibians has declined, the numbers of them remain the same or even increase. Second, the decline in Yosemite National Park in California cannot sufficiently assumes that the worldwide numbers are also diminished, since the author does not prove that the conditions in this park is fully representative of the world. The third aspect is that throughout the letter, there is no evidence and statistics about the worldwide pollution of water and air as well as the comparison of concrete numbers of the amphibians, which might substantiate the argument. Moreover, the author also neglects other possible effects which may contribute to the decline, such as the migration, the decreasing area of wet lands, the capture by human beings or other creatures.
In sum, this argument is not convincing as it stands. To better strengthen it, the author should provide more evidence about the transformation of the climate as well as the air and water. Moreover, the author also should tell me about the situation if these trout are moved away. To further assess this argument, I also need to know about the changes in the concrete numbers of the worldwide amphibians. |
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