argument20 砍啦砍啦砍啦！！！挖咔咔！

victoriazhizhiUID: 163135

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'

正文~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In this letter, the author claims that, by limiting the number of mopeds rented by each bicycle rental companies, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians will reduce. However, I find this argument unconvincing for several reasons.

The threshold problem is that the author draws a cause-and-effect relationship between the popularity of Balmer Island in summer and the inevitability of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. Although the population increases to 100000 during summer, no evidence and data has proved that accidents which are caused by mopeds increase with the enhancement of population. It might be the case that people in that area strictly abide the traffic rules and take much care when driving mopeds. At the same time, since mopeds are vehicles that run at a slow speed, there might not be much possibilities of serious accidents, that is to say, perhaps it is not necessary for the council to make some limitations to reduce accidents. Without evidence to substantiate the assumption, the author cannot reasonably conclude that we should take some methods to prevent accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.

Next, even if the increasing population actually is much related to the increasing number of accidence, it is also arbitrary for the author to make the assertion that council should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of moped and bicycle companies. If the council has to make some limitations of moped and bicycle, why this limitation should only be given to the rental companies? It is possible that it is the private mopeds and bicycles that cause the large part of accidents. If so, giving limitation to the rental companies cannot solve the problem either. Thus, before verifying how accidents of mopeds happen, the author cannot attribute the origin to the mopeds from rental companies and limit the numbers of their mopeds.

Moreover, suppose that the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians have a lot of to do with rented mopeds and relevant limitation has be given to rental companies, can the council be sure to attain the 50 percent of reduction in moped accidents? If limiting the number of mopeds of rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day means that the number of rented mopeds has been reduced by 40 percent, why does the author claim that accident rate will decrease by 50 percent but not 40 percent? Since no accurate survey and statistic has been provided to testify the quantitatively relationship between the rented mopeds and accidents, the author cannot make reliable assertion that accidents will reduce by 50 percent.

Finally, the author cites a fact that in the neighboring island of Torseau, the council has successfully reached the goal of reeducation of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians by doing similar limitation. However, it does not necessarily mean that council of Balmer Island could get a pleasing purpose. It is possible that the landform of Torseau Island is hilly and dangerous for people to drive mopeds or other vehicles, or the road or Torseau is so narrow and tortuous that people might easily lose control when on the mopeds. Hence, making moderate limitation of mopeds in Torseau Island might effectively reduce accident rate. Without showing the difference of the two islands, the author cannot reasonably conclude that adopting same method in Balmer Island will reduce the accident rate.

To summarize, to persuade me that by limiting the number of rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in Balmer Island the number of accidents can reduce to half of before, the author must supply clear evidence of the discussed issues above.

victoriazhizhiUID: 163135

晕～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
怎么这么长啊～～～～～～～～～见鬼了啊，我看倒计时软件里一直显示的都是361个字，也不知道写了多少，竟然这么多。
BTW，本来想限时的，后来失败了
大家看看是不是写的太罗索了。。。。。
Ft:o

鬼谷子UID: 159645

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'

正文~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In this letter, the author claims that, by limiting the number of mopeds rented by each bicycle rental companies, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians will reduce. However, I find this argument unconvincing for several reasons.  【这个开头还算是简洁】

The threshold problem is that the author draws a cause-and-effect relationship between the popularity of Balmer Island in summer and the inevitability of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. Although the population increases to 100000 during summer, no evidence and data has proved that accidents which are caused by mopeds increase with the enhancement of population. It might be the case that people in that area strictly abide the traffic rules and take much care when driving mopeds. At the same time, since mopeds are vehicles that run at a slow speed, there might not be much possibilities of serious accidents, that is to say, perhaps it is not necessary for the council to make some limitations to reduce accidents. Without evidence to substantiate the assumption, the author cannot reasonably conclude that we should take some methods to prevent accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.  【前面和后面论述的不是一回事，把两个问题混在一起说了】

Next, even if the increasing population actually is much related to the increasing number of accidence, it is also arbitrary for the author to make the assertion that council should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of moped and bicycle companies. If the council has to make some limitations of moped and bicycle, why this limitation should only be given to the rental companies?   【这句话没用】It is possible that it is the private mopeds and bicycles that cause the large part of accidents. If so, giving limitation to the rental companies cannot solve the problem either. Thus, before verifying how accidents of mopeds happen, the author cannot attribute the origin to the mopeds from rental companies and limit the numbers of their mopeds.  【忽略了每天出租30，50这个问题了】

Moreover, suppose that the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians have a lot of to do with rented mopeds and relevant limitation has be given to rental companies, can the council be sure to attain the 50 percent of reduction in moped accidents?   【这个50%是事实，如果你要反驳，应该在你的下一段，两地的地区差异上面】If limiting the number of mopeds of rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day means that the number of rented mopeds has been reduced by 40 percent, why does the author claim that accident rate will decrease by 50 percent but not 40 percent? Since no accurate survey and statistic has been provided to testify the quantitatively relationship between the rented mopeds and accidents, the author cannot make reliable assertion that accidents will reduce by 50 percent.

Finally, the author cites a fact that in the neighboring island of Torseau, the council has successfully reached the goal of reeducation of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians by doing similar limitation. However, it does not necessarily mean that council of Balmer Island could get a pleasing purpose. It is possible that the landform of Torseau Island is hilly and dangerous for people to drive mopeds or other vehicles,  【真是这样不就不骑了，也就谈不到降低了】 or the road or Torseau is so narrow and tortuous that people might easily lose control when on the mopeds. Hence, making moderate limitation of mopeds in Torseau Island might effectively reduce accident rate. Without showing the difference of the two islands, the author cannot reasonably conclude that adopting same method in Balmer Island will reduce the accident rate.   【问题没说到点子上面，两地不同，可能是那种那种那种方面的不同呢？】

To summarize, to persuade me that by limiting the number of rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in Balmer Island the number of accidents can reduce to half of before, the author must supply clear evidence of the discussed issues above.

  【建议仔细考虑了题目之后再下笔，argu也不是想象的那么简单的。加油！】

victoriazhizhiUID: 163135

收到。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
终于看见你了啊鬼鬼，快教教我开头

boyjimUID: 125249

zhizhi好样的~看到开头我先给你赞一个啊！！！哈哈~偶28考咯~~就不给你看了~哈哈~~考完义务给你看看阿~~哈哈哈哈~~~:D