Argument21 恢复生产大衣问题，第一次贴argu大家拍啊，还有一周考试必回拍

combatantUID: 200023

------题目------
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
'Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.'
------正文------
In the memo, the author claim that the company should resume production of  deluxe alpaca overcoats. In substantiate this claim, the author pointed out that the market was lack of this kind of clothes for five years, and their major competitor also did not provide this kind of clothes. However, I found that this argument is full of unwarranted assumptions and problematic for several critical flaws.

Firstly, the author unfairly assume that having a new fabric supplier promise requirable resuming production. Without this evidence, it is entirely possible that the new supplier provide fabric in low quality which can not be used in deluxe alpaca overcoats production. In this case ,the author's recommendation would be considerablly undermined.

Secondly, the author unreasonable predict that their major competitor no longer making alpaca overcoat result in absence of alpaca overcoat supply in market. The author provide no evidece that there are no other company producing this kind of overcoats .Without such evidence, it is very likely that there are other company or companies supplying the market with sufficient overcoats, therefore, the author's conclusion is dubious.

Thirdly , given that alpaca overcoats disappear  in market for five years. the author fails to establish the causal relationship between market demand of deluxe alpaca overcoats and absence of supplying of this kind of overcoats for five years. Without proving this causal relationship, it is also very likely that the customs' taste  have changed and they have no longer have interests in this style of overcoats. In this case, the author's recommendation would be seriously weakened.

Finally, the author unfairly assume that the company would surely make increasing profit from deluxe alpaca overcoats production. For one thing, the author cites that the price of most  types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, and assume that customers would be willing to pay higher prices for alpaca overcoats. The author  commits a fallacy of false analogue. It is entirely possible that this style of overcoats is not fit for customers taste and customers are not willing to pay higher price. For another thing, even the customers want to pay a higher price for this kind of overcoats , the company is not necessarily make profit, let along an increasing profit. The profitability is a function of revenue and expense. The author fails to consider the factor of expense .If expense outweighs the income , the company is not likely to make profit. Any of these scenarios , if true , would seriously undermine the author's conclusion.

To sum up, this argument is unconvincing for all reasons discussed above. To better substantiate the conclusion, the author should provide more evidence about the new fabric supplier is qualified, the demand for deluxe alpaca overcoats in market is existing and the company could make money through resuming production.

comingsoonUID: 175137

In the memo, the author claim that the company should resume production of deluxe alpaca overcoats. In substantiate this claim, the author pointed out that the market was lack of this kind of clothes for five years, and their major competitor also did not provide this kind of clothes. However, I found that this argument is full of unwarranted assumptions and problematic for several critical flaws.

Firstly, the author unfairly assumes that having a new fabric supplier promise requirable ? resuming production. Without this evidence, it is entirely possible that the new supplier provide fabric in low quality which can not be used in deluxe alpaca overcoats production. In this case, the author's recommendation would be considerably undermined.

Secondly, the author unreasonable predicts that their major competitor no longer making alpaca overcoat results in absence of alpaca overcoat supply in market. The author provides no evidence that there are no other company producing this kind of overcoats. Without such evidence, it is very likely that there are other company or companies 重复了吧，直接用companies不就行了 supplying the market with sufficient overcoats, therefore, the author's conclusion is dubious.

Thirdly, given that alpaca overcoats disappear in market for five years, the author fails to establish the a causal relationship between market demand of deluxe alpaca overcoats and absence of supplying of this kind of overcoats for five years. Without proving this causal relationship, it is also very likely that the customs' taste have has changed and they have 这个have多余 no longer have interests in this style of overcoats. In this case, the author's recommendation would be seriously weakened.

Finally, the author unfairly assumes that the company would surely make increasing profit from deluxe alpaca overcoats production. For one thing, the author cites that the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, and assume that customers would be willing to pay higher prices for alpaca overcoats. The author commits a fallacy of false analogue. It is entirely possible that this style of overcoats is not fit for customers taste this style of overcoats is out of fashion, 不过感觉这个和上面那段有点重复 and customers are not willing to pay higher price. For another thing, even the customers want to pay a higher price for this kind of overcoats, the company is not necessarily make profit, let along an increasing profit. The profitability is a function of revenue and expense. The author fails to consider the factor of expense .If expense outweighs the income, the company is not likely to make profit. Any of these scenarios, if true, would seriously undermine the author's conclusion.

To sum up, this argument is unconvincing for all reasons discussed above. To better substantiate the conclusion, the author should provide more evidence about the new fabric supplier is qualified, the demand for deluxe alpaca overcoats in market is existing and the company could make money through resuming production.
有些拼写和语法错误，还有注意标点符号前面不要空格.

victoriazhizhiUID: 163135

Ft
往word一粘贴，各种红绿，建议楼主检查好了再发。

combatantUID: 200023

谢谢comingsoon 和victoriazhizhi 。其实我发前已经改过能看出来的词汇语法错误了。见凉。我自己感觉无论怎么改总是有word认出的错误的。

victoriazhizhiUID: 163135

好像不是这样吧，听你这么说我又把你作文弄下来看了
结果有很多时态和拼写的错误啊，这个word检查的没错
我看看的 一会给发上来

combatantUID: 200023

感谢victoriazhizhi！ bow!你真热心。首先道歉啦。我的作文的确很多语法错误，是我自己一时看不出来，经过你和comingsoon指点我知道了。我自己发时改了写拼写错误。我的确欠火候啊，语言上问题很大，不知道能不能短时间内纠正，每次写我都很注意拼写语法了，还是有很多错误。每次没时间修改，粘贴到word里错误一大堆，我觉得真正到考试时也会这样！不知道下场会怎么残？还指望argu得分呢。

by the way,主要竞争对手的问题，题目中是major competitor,是单数，所以还可能有其他的非major的competitors.这段我的确没写清楚，当时时间太紧。自己以为说明白了，回头看看的确不行。

再谢victoriazhizhi：D谢谢指出这么多错误不足